ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Monday, November 03, 2008

Predictions from The Conspiracy

Welcome Instapundit readers (and thanks, Glenn)! Throw in your two cents in the comments.

My fellow co-conspirators and I sat down recently and submitted our electoral projections on the Obamessiah / McCain election. (Is it just me or does "electoral projection" sound like some sort of sexual innuendo used by guys like Chuck Todd as a pickup line?)

Here, in no particular order are our predictions:

First, MontereyJohn says that The Obamessiah's ability to turn back the tides will not help him with the electorate. I'd like to point out that this prediction has McCain doing better than Bush '00, but slightly worse than Bush '04.



Here's MontereyJohn's commentary on his prediction:

This is just "informed gut," but I just am not believing these polls, and I think the Joe the Plumber economy has real life. I think the Obama infomercial was a fiasco last night and did more harm than good. It appealed to his base, but regular folks are not going to like it. I could be just as wrong as can be, but this is how I see it.
[...]
just maybe ... Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine!

Yes, I know some of these are tossup or even leaning
Obama, but this is what my old gut is telling me this morning.

All I have to say is "Bully for being bold!"

Now, on to Brian, who's been stockpiling ammunition with Penelope for the past few months.

Here are his results:


His analysis?
Indiana is supposedly the first to report results at 7:30ET, so we'll know pretty early if its going to be even worse for McCain than I predicted. Ditto for the next states of NC, VA, PA. If Obama wins any 2 of those, its over.

FL will be in the list of what to watch for next. I expect that Obama will lose that, but by a close margin. If he wins that.. it's over.

OH I have falling to Obama despite the effective use of the Joe the Plumber issue, mostly due to the voter registration issues that have been brought to light. 600k registrations will translate into SOME votes. And Mickey Mouse doesn't get polled etiher.

Finally, I have MO as a loser for McCain as well. I'd like for him to win it very much, especially since I live in the state and would hope that I can help to bring McCain over the finish line. I expect, however, that St. Louis and Kansas City, to be the last to report (again) on election night, as the votes are "found" to bring Obama in as the winner.

Finally, I will add, that although my prediction is rather downbeat for McCain fans, its not, it appears, as bad as the Architect's. Suffice it to say, that I'm always wrong on these predictions, and I'd admit my mistake, if McCain can pull out a win tomorrow.
Finally, here is the prediction from Saint Wendeler (patron saint of country people and herdsmen - or a cheap German beer that you could only stomach if you already had a few - you be the judge):



Analysis:
I actually think Colorado could flip to red in my map, meaning that the electoral score would be 269-269 and the days following the election will be filled with lawsuits, etc. and with Nancy Pelosi handing Obama the Presidency.

It's highly unlikely that McCain will be able to pull it out, not with the ground game that Obama has put together, the voter fraud, the 15-points that the media has given him by not finding out anything about the man (other than he's dreamy and has a calm voice...), and the idiotic belief by the electorate that our troubles are due to too much unfettered capitalism.

McCain will pull out Ohio, but Pennsylvania is a bridge too far. Obama's convention in Denver and the demographic shift in the Mountain West is what will sink McCain.

Instead of "Florida Florida Florida!!!", the mantra in 2008 should've been Colorado, Colorado, Colorado!!!

Before we go, I thought I'd also provide you with my prediction on how the MSM will portray the election results from 11:00 am EST to November 6th, 2012.

Here you go:




NBC will be eager to call Virginia and Pennsylvania early on Tuesday, and will cite exit polls throughout the day to give the impression that all is lost. They'll couch their statements with the following:
"We're not going to call the state until the polls close at x:xx pm, but it certainly looks like this is going to be a good night for Obama."
prepare for it....
Watch for it...
ignore it and get to the polls.


*** UPDATE ***
H/T to the Anchoress

It would seem that some networks are already stating that they'll be using the language I provided above. From tomorrow's NYTimes:
“Given what we know about the results, or the projected results in various states, it’s beginning to look like it will be very difficult for John McCain to put together enough votes to win this election.”
[...]
In 2004, early exit poll data suggested that Mr. Kerry was ahead began circulating within newsrooms — and leaking out on Web sites, including Slate’s — early in the afternoon on Election Day. This year, the consortium of six news organizations gathering the exit poll data — NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and The Associated Press — have agreed to keep the information under quarantine until 5 p.m.

Representatives of those news organizations will begin analyzing that information at a secret location beginning in late morning, but will have to surrender all electronic devices at the door; even restroom visits will be supervised. There were already signs on Monday that the additional security was paying off.

“We won’t call off exit polls,” Mr. Plotz said, “in part because we don’t expect to get them leaked to us much before the first results.”

rrrrrrrright....

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Comments (17)
Rhodium Heart said...

I think the media will concede that the R's are taking Utah. So make that last one 533 to 5.

Anonymous said...

Here's my absurd electoral college tie; McCain/Palin:

-- Steal New Hampshire and Pennsylvania
-- Hold Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina
-- Lose everything out west including (surprise) Montana

http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/9193/269hu1.jpg

Stranger things have happened!

Anonymous said...

The coal remarks turn PA, OH, and VA to McCain. When the PA results are announced, Keith Olbermann's head explodes.

nick said...

Rove.com

tell me you are better than him

Anonymous said...

No matter what the electoral college says, I predict there will be riots and we won't have a clear winner until at least December.

Anonymous said...

That media map is both funny and true.

docweasel said...

God, I hope the optimists are right. I see it as doable, but it's hard. I am mostly relying on my faith in the good sense of the American public, and they've never let me down before. Would I rather was had Obama's numbers? Sure. But there has been a steady drumbeat of negative stories about Obama, his advertising is reaching saturation to the point it is meaningless, or worse, annoying, and the momentum is with McCain, polls are tightening, which can only mean McCain is gaining. Obama needs 10pts. according to some to safely overcome leaners coming home and undecideds going for the safe choice and the (possible, I don't believe it) Bradley effect. He don't have it. So, I"m going with McCain, I differ with the first map in that I think he'll win PA _and_ VA in the end, hold NV and the other red states and that's the difference, even if he loses NM, IA and CO.

Praying, hoping, doing all we can to get out the vote. That's all we can do, and hope our countrymen see it our way.

Anonymous said...

I have already bought canned goods and bottled water, just in case McCain pulls it out.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't want to be anywhere urban, should McCain win. The court cases that will drag on after this--Obama's donation scheme and bogus votes and registrations everywhere--mean ugly confrontations in urban and Blue areas.

ELC said...

I think you're onto something with the all-blue map. Even if Obama wins the country by only the 12 votes in some Podunkville somewhere, MSM will crow about it being a "landslide", giving him a "mandate" to do whatever he wants to do... even the stuff he hasn't breathed a word about in the campaign.

Strangely, the race-baiters will use a narrow VICTORY to prove racism: if we weren't racists, it wouldn't have been so close, right? They're not going to let go their livelihood so easily.

BTW, I think PA depends on how many dead people our teamster-thug governor can get to the polls in Philadelphia.

stavr0s said...

I predict McCain by a larger margin than anyone would guess.

I predict riots in some urban areas regardless if Obama wins or loses.

Anonymous said...

I predict that there will be free shopping in Chicago whichever way it turns out.

Mark E. said...

hilarious depiction of the msm because it's so true...

speaking of which...is the nytimes ready to look seriously at liberal bias now?
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/media-credibility/

Monterey John said...

Geezers, my "stalwart" conspirators have gone wobbly! Oh, the horror! the Old Guy keeps the flame of hope, er, there must be a better word, alive :)

kjvc said...

NBC has to let go of Mississippi, from all of the signs I see in my neighborhood, it is a landslide here for McCain. Out of the 40 or so signs I counted yesterday, one, only one was for the man who would be king.

Anonymous said...

"We're not going to call the state until the polls close at x:xx pm, but it certainly looks like this is going to be a good night for Obama."

Wow, I veritably hallucinated Brokaw's voice as I read the end of that. Be honest, did you check archive footage from 2000 or 2004 first?

Anonymous said...

"I have already bought canned goods and bottled water, just in case McCain pulls it out."

I hear you. You'll be back on the bacon-burger with tarter sauce, and fries routine in one week.