ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Thursday, October 30, 2008

MJ's Forecast of States for MCain

This is just "informed gut," but I just am not believing these polls, and I think the Joe the Plumber economy has real life. I think the Obama infomercial was a fiasco last night and did more harm than good. It appealed to his base, but regular folks are not going to like it. I could be just as wrong as can be, but this is how I see it.

Here's my list. What do my fellow conspirators think?

New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Ohio
Indiana
Missouri
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Texas
N Dakota
S Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Montana
Wyoming
Idaho
Utah
Colorado
Nevada
Arizona

and ... just maybe ... Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine!

Yes, I know some of these are tossup or even leaning
Obama, but this is what my old gut is telling me this morning.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: MontereyJohn

Comments (4)
Carlos Echevarria said...

My best friend and ideological soulmate is a master of poll analysis and methodology...

It's eerie but over the last 20 yrs of knowing him, he has always been right, irrespective of what party would end up winning.

From what he told me yesterday, he has sources too, he would concur with the bulk of your analysis...(actually he has been bucking me up lately because frankly ObamaNation is a goose step into a nightmare world of despotism)

Florida is going RED again, I was at the MAC rally yesterday, as well as the 17th when he last came.

The internals that Schmidt has must tell him that PA is in play...odd that Rendell publically asked for more support, right????

Plus, Kerry only won it by 3 or 4% right???? Murtha really didn't help their cause, LOL

HillBuzz has some reporting as well of Clintonistas telling her on the ground that PA is going Red...if it does, and we hold, Missouri, Florida and Ohio, this is over...

St Wendeler said...

me? I'm going to wait until Monday to make my prediction...

why?

Because there will be 2-3 stories that will break on Friday and play through the weekend and one key will be whether it's a story about McCain or The One.

Brian said...

My thoughts exactly Saint.... The good/bad news about late breaking stories though is that with all the early voting, they don't have as much impact.

That's great if you're talking about Bush's DUI, bad if your talking about an Obama tape with Khalid.

jakad said...

I'm dubious about Virginia and my gut tells me that Pennsylvania goes Red on Tuesday.