ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Monday, September 08, 2008

McCain-Palin over Obama-Biden

USA Today's front page story shows that the Palin nomination has boosted McCain's chances, giving him the lead.

Here's the story, along with some analysis:

Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

CONVENTION: GOP rejuvenated

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

As I mentioned here, the Likely Voter margin is more important than just Registered voters, so McCain enjoys a 10 point lead right now according to one poll. We'll wait to see what other polls will show, especially those in the battleground states.

Also, today's print edition also provides this helpful tidbit on page A4. Here are the responses to three standard poll questions:

Which candidate do these characteristics most apply to?
1) Cares about the needs of people like you:
Obama 52% / McCain 40%

2) Is Honest & Trustworthy:
Obama 39% / McCain 46%

3) Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington:
Obama 44% / McCain 48%

It would seem that for all of the favorable coverage Obama has received, McCain still leads him in Honesty and the ability to deliver bipartisan change. Expect to see McCain/Palin hit Obama on those points in the coming weeks.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler