ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Back Home in Indiana...

If the reports from Confederate Yankee are true, then it looks like it may come down to Indiana for Hillary.

At this point, the only thing worth discussing is Obama's margin of victory here in the Tarheel State. If he wins by double-digits, he can claim to have staunched the bleeding over Crackerquiddick and the damage done to him by his pastor of 20 years, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

As I was saying to Penelope last night, Clinton probably has to win 1 of the 2 races today. If she wins Indiana, but loses North Carolina, she's in till the convention. Even if its by double digit margins, that will only reinforce the image of Obama, that he can't win white male voters. If she loses both, there will be talk about how Obama finally put her away. If she wins both, there will be serious pressure on Obama's campaign to provide reasons to keep the superdelegates he has.

As I've said since Ohio, and others in the media have pointed out, the race is tied and will remain tied. Neither side will win enough through the remaining contests to win the nomination. This is all about the superdelegates. They will decide the nomination fight.

The only question remaining is how damaging that decision will end up being. As a Republican, I'm all for letting Operation Chaos continue until the convention.

My prediction? Obama by less than 10 points in NC. Hillary by 3 points in Indiana. The groundhog see's his shadow... 6 more weeks of campaigning.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian