ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Predictions and other assorted things.

Phoo Phoo, is this thing on? Test-1-2-3. Test 1-2-3.

Ok sports fans its been a while since I've done anything but comment, but here goes. Bear with me if I forget where some of the buttons are.

As we all know the new year doesn't really start until the first contests of the Presidential race, so I can just get my predictions for 2008 in under the wire.


Predictions

Iowa - I predicted last year, that Barack Obama would peak in 2007 in his presidential run. To be honest, I was expecting sometime around October/November timeframe, as the electorate looked at the candidate in more detail, and realized that the only reason they liked him, was simply, in a similar vein to Greg Brady of the Brady Bunch as "Johnny Bravo" he "fit the suit". Tonight we should know if I was right in my prediction from last year, but I'm going to go out on a limb and project the following order for the democrats in the caucus this year: Hillary (!TM) Clinton, John Edwards, and finally Barack Obama. The simple reason for my analysis is based on the fact that Obama's support is with outsiders to the Democratic party - who have likely never been to a caucus before, and will likely simply not show up. The same problem that Howard Dean had 4 years ago - his young, independent "take back the party" supporters aren't tied enough into the party to sway the obscure and arcane caucus process. Edwards has some momentum, which gives him the number 2 spot. If Hillary does indeed win Iowa as I have predicted, then its likely that she will owe half of Iowa (or at least the half of the 5% of the eligible voters that show up to a caucus) overnights in the Lincoln bedroom. But that's no small price to pay for the Clintons.

As to the Republicans. Iowa is all about one thing. Turnout. Who leaves the house for the evening, and who stays at home. I think Thompson is going to do very well, as I think he has the strongest momentum. To tie in with that I think Huckabee has turned off a lot of voters with his "pretend" non-attacks against Romney. Which will cause his supporters to drop. So my prediction: Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, McCain. (oh and Ron Paul finishes better than anybody expects, all for naught).

If I'm right it will be simply due to dumb luck as this process is so impossible to poll or take the pulse of we won't know until we know.

I will say, that the talk about Iowa being a "must win" for Clinton is all just hogwash. Clinton will be in this until they pry her cold dead hands from a microphone. She's in it till Super Tuesday at least, and even it meant a brokered convention she'll be in race for the nomination. The phrase "for the good of the party" means nothing to the Clintons as has been demonstrated before.

Which brings me to the next topic for a prediction, who ultimately gets the nomination?

Presidential Nomination - Democrats
Hillary Clinton
- she'll go 'til the going's gone. They'll have to shoot her to keep her from mucking things up if she doesn't win fair and square. And if she doesn't get the nomination, the election's in the bag for the Republican's as the Clintons will sabotage their own party for a shot at 2012.

Presidential Nomination - Republicans
I echo the Saint's good endorsement from before, along with Beldar at his Blog in the middle of December. I'm for Thompson. I think he'd be the best sort of person in the job. I also think he would run a very effective "new media" campaign. One that wouldn't have been possible with another candidate, or in another time previous to this election season. A perfect storm of a known personable candidate, combined with the new medium of viral marketing could make this a very interesting election season.

Alas, I don't think he will get it. Mitt Romney has the organization behind him, and more importantly, all the money he could ever need to win the nomination. I'm ok with that. If Mitt wins I will support him fully. I think we could do much worse, however I think we could do much worse than any of the current candidates in the Republican field. We have a very good republican field this year. Better than any Republican field since Reagan. Any of the current candidates (with the exception of Ron Paul) would be a fine President.

Oops, forgot the
New Hampshire Primaries
Who cares? Ok, fine, I'' predict: Clinton/Romney. Happy?


Presidential Victor
Mitt Romney
- I'll cover my bets, and say that if Hillary is nominated, the Republicans (any candidate) will win. If she isn't nominated, the Republican's (any candidate) will still likely win, assuming that Hillary is still concious and not in some coma or something.

Other Predictions (in no particular order):

1. Afghanistan will be subject of a well publicized "surge" by the Pentagon. Politically this will allow the Republicans to point out how the Dem's were against the surge. Militarily it will help quash a current Al-Qaeda resurgence. It will also put pressure on Pakistan and Iran.

2. Al-Qaeda will pull off at least 2 successful attacks. Both relatively small (I pray). At least one in the United States.

3. Indictments of CIA personnel will be handed down in the tape destruction case. No administration (White House or otherwise) will be involved. This will cause the lefty moonbats to cry cover-up.

4. Identity theft will become a major storyline in the mainstream press. Someone in the marketplace will come up with a identity management solution that is open to all vendors and it will not be Microsoft (having been 'burned' by the Microsoft Passport system previously). Identity management for financial transactions will require some sort of hardware token, which will become cheap. (Ok, maybe thats all too much to put out there in just one year. How about: Online Identity Management will look to be regulated by the federal government.)

5. The next wave of social networking will be social networking aggregators, that will copy all your updates from your blogs to all the social networking sites (MySpace, Facebook, etc) which for everyone over 30 will be a "Who? What?" sort of moment.

6. The FAA funding reauthorization bil will pass, but will not contain any user fee requirement.

7. Dayjet will still be in business by 2009.

8. Al Gore will get either a) a regular slot on a tv show or b) a multiple hour special on a primetime network.

9. The S&P 500 will close up 100 points from its Jan 1 close or around 7%.

10. There will not, technically, be a recession in 2008, as a recession requires 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth. The media however, will continue to say the US economy in recession.

11. There will be at least one mass shooting event (similar to VA Tech, etc) which will be stopped by civilians with concealed carry permits.

12. The Vice Presidential nominee of both parties will not be of the current slate of candidates.

13. A major computer intrusion/attack will target a specific US company and result in the theft of at least 10 million dollars.


Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian