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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

USA Today painting a rosy picture for the Venezuelan economy?

Regular visitors to ARC may know that I've got a thing with Hugo and his idiotic economic policies. "Oil-for-Chickens" and "if it's a business, nationalize it" are not economic policies which will lead to improved lives for the people of Venezuela in the long term.

Today's USA today seems to paint a rosy picture of the Venezuelan economy and throughout the article, the hardships which are starting to impact the Venezuelan people are glossed over. Here's the article, which I'll interrupt with comments throughout. I apologize in advance.

Venezuelan consumers gobble up U.S. goods
Despite political tension, U.S. companies do well

By David J. Lynch

An audacious anti-American president is steering his nation on a socialist course. USA TODAY examines developments in this vital supplier of oil to the USA.

VALENCIA, Venezuela — You might think a country headed by the ferociously anti-American President Hugo Chávez would be a lousy place for American companies to do business.

Think again. Amid an oil-fueled boom, scores of well-known U.S. corporations are notching impressive sales in Venezuela. This nation of 26 million people is entering the fourth year of a robust economic expansion and, despite sour relations with the United States, consumers are gobbling up American cars, appliances, fast food and shampoo.

Few manufacturers are doing better than General Motors. The automaker last year sold a record 92,000 cars and trucks in Venezuela and expects to reach almost 160,000 this year. "The industry is going really fast. … Today, I have a waiting list for every single product," says Ronaldo Znidarsis, 42, GM's local managing director.

GM, which has sold cars here since World War II, literally can't make vehicles fast enough to satisfy Venezuelan buyers. Its local plant, housed on "General Motors Avenue" in an industrial district near this city's airport, added a third shift in 2006 and is running flat-out producing more than 20 models.

But rather than expand capacity to meet ravenous demand, GM — like other U.S. companies — is importing additional products. With Chávez, a self-described revolutionary, promising a grandiose "socialism for the 21st century," new multibillion-dollar investments are just too risky.

Ummm, wait a second. If everything is going gang-busters in Venezuela and GM couldn't meet demand, wouldn't they be investing in the country - resulting in more and higher paid jobs for the people of Venezuela? Nope - Because you never know when Hugo might decide that your industry is vital to national security and take it over. This paragraph seems to gloss over this fact... and there's more to come.

"Commercially, the country's in a good moment. But I don't think this is sustainable in the long term. … The truth is there's no more investment coming in," says Michael Penfold, former executive director of Venezuela's investment promotion agency.

From an annual level that fluctuated for much of the past decade between $400 million and $700 million, investment from U.S. companies last year collapsed to no more than $50 million, according to Edmond Saade, president of the Venezuelan-American Chamber of Commerce & Industry in Caracas.

GM's last major investment here, a $55 million paint shop, occurred seven years ago. Economywide, the lack of investment means Venezuela's economic growth is producing fewer jobs and higher inflation than it otherwise might.
No doubt Chavez will take the mantle of victimhood and blame a capitalist conspiracy against his socialist utopia.

Venezuela's unbalanced growth is reflected in statistics on the growing trade between the two political antagonists. The U.S. exported to Venezuela $9 billion worth of products last year, up 89% from 2004. Cars, oil field equipment, chemicals and computer gear were among the leading items.

Venezuela's shipments to the USA also rose, but by only 49%. And almost all of its $37 billion in exports to the USA were crude oil and other petroleum products. Venezuela has made little progress diversifying its economy: Oil revenue accounts for more than three-quarters of Venezuela's exports and about half of its government budget.

Aides to Chávez deny any problem. Alberto Muller Rojas, one of the president's top foreign policy advisers, insists that foreign companies are investing. Venezuela also compares favorably with such market-friendly countries as Chile in terms of the ability of foreign companies to repatriate profits, he says. "If you've been to a shopping mall here, you've seen how socialism is killing us," he said sarcastically.

Few leaders are as passionate in their anti-Americanism as Chávez, a former military officer re-elected in December with 63% of the vote. He's accused the U.S. of seeking a global dictatorship that "threatens the very survival of the human species" and routinely accuses President Bush of plotting to overthrow or assassinate him.

As relations between Caracas and Washington continue to deteriorate, some companies with significant local manufacturing and distribution arms have grown gun-shy about discussing their Venezuelan operations. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Cargill, Kellogg and 3M all declined interview requests. 3M employs more than 350 people in Venezuela, Kellogg more than 200 workers.

By most measures, Venezuela is booming. The economy grew at an annual rate of more than 9% each of the past two years; this year, it's expected to slow somewhat to a still-healthy 7%.

Under Chávez, the government has directed a torrent of oil money into the domestic economy, jacking up spending on health, education and training programs. Government spending shot up to 41% of gross domestic product from 33% the year before, according to the Institute of International Finance. The president also has lavished benefits on his military, granting sweetheart deals on new cars to graduates of the officers academy. Many of the vehicles are built by GM.
So, the economy is growing, but only because Chavez is throwing oil money into the pot by buying a bunch of SUVs for the military.
The American presence here is reflected along the highway between Caracas and Valencia, 100 miles to the west. Billboards for familiar names such as Maytag, Goodyear and McDonald's line the road. "This market is a very good market for U.S. companies," says Saade. "They're selling a helluva lot of product."

For now. The question is how the mercurial Venezuelan leader will treat the private sector in the future.

Chávez, who said earlier this month that he was re-reading Che Guevara's writings on Soviet economic policy, vows to construct a homegrown socialism that will improve on the discredited models of the past. He came to power in 1998 after Venezuela's embrace of market-oriented policies known as the Washington Consensus backfired and deepened poverty.
Now, Chávez, 52, is redirecting oil revenue to help the poor. But the Venezuelan president has not defined the precise contours of the socialism he seeks, leaving a pronounced air of uncertainty about the future. The government has ripped up contracts with four oil industry giants engaged in development of its Orinoco Belt region, wanting to renegotiate more favorable arrangements. And when Chávez announced in January that he would nationalize Electricidad de Caracas, an electric company, and telecommunications provider CANTV, the stock market plunged by one-third.

But Chávez's decision to pay for the foreign-owned stakes rather than seize them outright eased investor fears. Venezuela paid AES Corp. $739.3 million for Electricidad de Caracas and paid Verizon $572 million for its stake in CANTV, helping the Caracas exchange rebound about 15% from its mid-January low.
Would be curious to know what those stakes would go for to another private firm instead of the government which has a unique tool in its negotiations - guns.

Still, it's not clear whether additional companies will be nationalized. And executives wonder where the government's proclivity for regulation will end. Price controls in some sectors already have led to shortages of products such as meat. Yet, inflation continues to rise, topping an annual rate of 20%.

Shortages AND inflation? crazy!
"It's a completely new ballgame. We just have to see how we can play," says Saade. "I'm not sure how, at this point."

Some companies aren't waiting to see what happens. Procter & Gamble, which maintains its Latin American headquarters in Caracas, has been gradually reducing the number of personnel it has in Venezuela while shifting some manufacturing operations elsewhere in Latin America. "P&G has been phasing out very quietly," says Robert Bottome, editor of the VenEconomia newsletter in Caracas.

Doug Shelton, a P&G spokesman, said he could not confirm any changes in the company's Venezuelan operations without being provided more specifics.

Meanwhile, at GM, Znidarsis is drawing up plans for another record year. A native of São Paulo, Brazil, the 42-year-old finance specialist could be a poster boy for the globalized auto industry. Since joining GM more than two decades ago, he's done stints in Detroit, Zurich, Singapore, Shanghai and South Korea.

In Venezuela, he enjoys a market of motivated buyers. The boom means middle-class Venezuelans have plenty of cash. Controls on foreign exchange keep the money trapped in the domestic market, and rising inflation means consumers who dawdle face higher prices. Interest rates are low, making car loans attractive. The government also provides a partial value-added tax exemption for some small cars and trucks, which this year will act as an effective 11% price cut.
So, you have a lot of cash, but it's not worth anything. I wonder if inflation was factored in to stat about the Venezuelan GDP booming...
Demand is so strong, GM has been able to increase prices an average of 6% in real terms. "Venezuelans see a vehicle as a way of saving money. It's a hard asset," Znidarsis says.
And here's the kicker. GM is having a gangbuster year because Venezuelans see it as an investment. It's not because they're flush with cash and the economy is booming - it's because people see where things are heading and want to get their hands on a hard asset that may be worth something as things go into the tank.
That's one reason graphic designer Karen Lopez, 25, bought a Chevy Spark last month after idling on a waiting list for five months. "Everyone said that the dollar would shoot up, and prices would rise on everything, including cars, because of the instability of the (December) elections. So I hurried. … In the five months — from September to February when I got the car — the price went up from 19 million bolivars ($8,837) to 21 million ($9,767)," she said.
A 10% increase in price in 5 months. No wonder GM is having a great year!
Selling cars here may be easy. But building them is another matter. The Valencia factory is one of GM's most complex, producing scores of different models from small commuter cars such as the Spark to hefty Chevy TrailBlazer sport-utility vehicles. The 24-acre factory employs almost 3,200 workers.

One bottleneck is the country's principal seaport, Puerto Cabello. Each day, vessels bearing about 1,700 shipping containers arrive in the northern port. It can process only about 1,000 of them, leading to backlogs for manufacturers like GM that rely on imported parts.

The government in December also introduced without warning a new regulation that makes it more difficult and time-consuming for manufacturers to import needed parts. Now, to purchase the U.S. dollars needed to pay his foreign suppliers, Znidarsis must obtain a certificate from the Ministry of Light Industry and Trade confirming that domestic parts aren't available. GM must obtain separate certificates each time it orders one of several thousand parts.

Paperwork delays are complicating the task of stockpiling the proper amount of each part for just-in-time production. Assembly lines at local Toyota and Ford plants earlier this month were slowed or stopped by the new regulation.

Troubles on the horizon... the added regulation will not help the Venezuelan people, as supply shortages are on the horizon and prices will skyrocket.
So far, GM appears to have navigated the tricky Venezuelan scene better than most. But it's hard to know how long the good times will continue.

" '07, I believe, is going to be a great year. The reason we don't show 2008 and the out years (on forecasts) is that it's a big question mark. If petrol prices stay the same, and there's no significant change in government policies, then '08 could be reasonable," says Znidarsis. "I don't know about '09."

Let's face facts: The Venezuelan government is dismantling its own economy and the people of Venezuela see the writing on the wall.

That USA Today skirts around the fundamental problems in the Venezuelan economy and tries to paint a rosy picture for US companies and the Venezuelans is pretty sad. That many on the American Left see Hugo as their hero is troubling for us at home.

But Hugo's actions in Venezuela is hurting the very people he claims to be helping. Of course, the poorer they become, the more the poor will need Hugo to save them.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler