Well, as is custom here at Another Rovian Conspiracy, it's the end of the year and time to tally the scores from our predictions for the year that has now come to a close. Unlike other prognostications that are made by other bloggers and media outlets, the conspirators are harshly scored and held to account for their predictions.
Brian took the prize for his predictions of 2006 - will he make a repeat? Or will the wily Monterey John, who came in 2nd place last year, grab it this year? Could Penelope somehow steal the prize? Although she didn't make any predictions, she's always heavily armed and lurking in the shadows...
Here is a link to our predictions that we made back in early 2007.
Scoring is 0 pts for wrong, 1pt for partially correct, 2pts for accurate prediction. Final score is Total points divided by total number of possible correct predictions.
All scoring is final.
First up, Monterey John:
1. Hillary Clinton comes out of the closet
Very prescient. While there have been rumors, Hillary!TM hasn't "come out." Nevertheless, I'll give you partial credit - 1 pts
2. Dick Durbin admits he is in remedial history classes with emphasis on 20th century tyrannies
I wish it were so... Dickie D is too stupid to recognize that he's stupid - 0 pts
3. California, Chicago and NYC ban KFC and McDonalds
Partial credit - 1 pt. While these chains haven't been banned, the Trans-fats that make their French Fries and Drumsticks sooo tasty have been banned - so, pretty close.
4. Democratic house leadership seeks declaration of war on Walmart
Hmmmm... Partial, 1 pt. always much bleating over Wal-Mart and it seems like the Dem base is more interested in a Presidential candidate with the backbone to stand up to Wal-Mart over one willing to take on the "terrorists." But, no declaration of war or anything approaching it. If Edwards wins the Presidency, however... Time to short Wal-Mart (and every other stock).
5. John Kerry launches mission to Osama bin Laden and declares this "spiritual leader" ready and willing to deal with US
6. Bill Clinton asks rhetorically what the meaning of "was" was
Correct, 2 pts - Bill did say that he "was" against the Iraq War, when in fact he was for it. I suppose it depends on the meaning of the word "was."
7. Denver blizzard of 2006 was result of global warming according to New York Times
2 pts - Can't everything be blamed on Global Warming?
8. Minimum wage bill amended to $109.50/hr... Pelosi says, "Hell, why not?"
Close, but only up a couple of bucks. 1 pts
9. DJI reaches 15,000 - Senate Democrats predict impending economic doom
Without the subprime mess, you'd probably be right. 0 pts
10. Unemployment rate reaches 2.5% - see 9 above
Still at record lows, but not that low. 0 pts
11. Inflation rate 1.5% - see 9 above
Actually higher... 0 pts
12. Home sales reach record levels - see 9 above
Way off... 0 pts
13. English becomes official second language in California
1 pt - nah, nothing will ever be official... It'll just happen slowly. (Although, the Spanish-only NFL ad could be considered as close to official as we'll get.
14. John Kerry is beheaded by Osama bin Laden
15. William Jefferson D-La announces he is running for president as he has plenty of cold cash on hand
0 pts(although he's still in Dem leadership, right?
16. Robert Byrd D-WVa sponsors anti-earmarking legislation and attaches rider that will fund the Robert Byrd Skyway from Charleston WVa to Washington DC
Earmarks? We don't have those anymore, right?
While not Byrd specifically, they all have their hands in the till while they excoriate earmarks - 2 pts
Now for Brian:
- Rosie O'Donnell will "retire" from the view. She begins working on a film project. [this is a ripoff from St Wendeler]
Good prediction, 2 Pts - Shame that you stole it from St Wendeler.
- Moqtar al-Sadr will be killed.
- Violence will escalate in Iraq in the first half of the year, followed by a lull.
Absolutely correct - 2 Pts (Despite Juan Cole's protestations to the contrary)
- Minimum wage bill will be signed into law. (oooh out on a limb aren't I)
2 Pts... You're like Cleo on that one.
- Prescription drug benefit will be re-examined by Democrats in the house, but will go no where.
0 Pts (Did the Dems do anything this year?
- Bush will veto at least 3 bills this year
2 pts - Bush finally figures out that he can veto some things.
- Case against Scooter Libby is withdrawn. Fitzgerald cites the lack of evidence he is able to put on due to restrictions from the CIA on classified information. Media takes this as Scooter winning on a technicality, but is happy to have the case go away (technically innocent, but we all know he's guilty). Joe Wilson's civil suit is dismissed with a summary judgement.
0 Pts - Scooter is still a pariah, and I believe Wilson & Plame's suit is still on the table.
- Barack Obama's presidential prospects peak in 2007.
Prospects may peak in 2008, but he's still a rock star in 2007 and positioned well for the primaries - 0 Pts
- Newt Gingrich does not announce a candidacy for the presidency.
- Colin Powell makes an announcement that he will NOT run for president despite no-one asking him to run.
- Michelle Malkin will do Pulitzer Prize level work while being embedded in Iraq, but will be ignored by everybody but Fox News.
- Dick Cheney leaves the VP office. Conspiracy theories abound on how Karl Rove a) gave him an offer he couldn't refuse or b) offed him.
Cheney certainly has been out of the news cycle, but he's still in office - 0 pts
Now for Saint Wendeler:
- Rosie off view - in order to pursue her next ambitious project
Correct - 2 Pts
- Air America really out of business
Somehow still kicking, despite lack of ratings and a talent. 0 Pts
- MSM undermines war effort more than in 2006
Correct - 2 Pts Once things started turning around in Iraq, it disappeared from view and the MSM pretended that nothing had changed.
- Nifong found guilty of ethics violations
Partially Correct - 1 Pt. Nifong disbarred, but Feds aren't going to prosecute him.
- Duke lacrosse players cleared of all remaining charges
Correct - 2 Pts
- Osama is confirmed dead; Libs don't think it's a big deal even though they've been bitching about him being alive for 4 years.
Incorrect - 0 Pts. (Although I don't think we'll ever know when he dies.)
- President Tom gets whackier; continues to lose support within country
Partially Correct - 1 Pt. A visit to Columbia where he gets support from US college students is about as whacky as I can take.
- Jimmy Carter asserts himself in foreign policy (aka makes an ass of himself)
Correct, 2 Pts - This was like shooting fish in a barrel.
- Mexico will be a larger concern in the War On Terror, through unholy alliance of drug kingpins, international terrorists, and revolutionary leftists
0 Pts - While this is true, no one is concerned at all.
- Hugo Chavez will expand his influence over South America
0 Pts - If only I had said that Hugo would've expanded his influence over the Leftists on college campuses. The voters in Venezuela even kept him from increasing his influence there.
- Castro will die; Raul will pick up where he left off - no democracy for Cuba
1 Pt - The man is still alive, but Raul has been running the country.
- Hamas ousts Fatah for control of Palestine. Pacifists around the world don't understand why the Israelis can't sit down and negotiate with the new government.
0 Pts - Palestine is still split between Hamas and Fatah, although Hamas seems to have the upper hand.
- Chris Matthews announces that he's running for President as a Green b/c he's tired of how conservative and weak the Dems are. Keith Olberman follows suit.
0 Pts - Matthews and Olberman are still an idiots, but they're not running.
- Obama is still a rock star.
- Tax cuts do not become permanent, but Bush does not allow tax increase - veto pen is ready (Tim Russert has a conniption).
- Guest Worker program doesn't pass - status quo.
2 Pts - Although it did ruin McCain's chance at the Presidency.
- Unemployment rate inches up to 5% - MSM doesn't know how to cover, since Dems control Congress.
Partially Correct, 1 Pt - Unemployment slightly below 5% and the MSM still covering the economy as if it's 1931.
- Annual economic growth is 2.5%
0 Pts - It looks like I may have misunderestimated as last quarter the annual forecast was 4.9%, although final numbers won't be out for some time. MSM still covering this as the Great Depression. I may come closer as 4th quarter numbers come in.
- DJIA approaches 14,000
2 Pts - Started the year at 12,500, crossed 14,000 in October, slipped to just 13,264 on the last day of trading.
- Bush appoints 3rd SCOTUS nominee - minority or woman with no track record, scaring Dems & GOP.
- More "youth" riots in France
2 Pts - Although Sarkozy is handling better than predecessor
- Terrorist attack in EU
1 Pt - Glasgow was the only "major" attack in Europe? Hmmmm.... perhaps the War On Terror is actually working. Partial credit because of the fact that the damage was relatively minor.
- Congress approves increase in troops, with conditions of a timetable for exit.
1 Pt - They didn't even get a timetable or tie the hands of Bush or Petraeus.
- Significant Troop level still in Iraq by end of 2007.
2 Pts - Although it's driving the Left absolutely bonkers.
And the results are:
Total Pts = 11
Score = 34% (11 out of 32 possible)
Total Pts = 11
Score = 45% (11 out of 24)
Total Pts = 26
Score = 54% (26 out of 48 possible)
Saint Wendeler takes the title from Brian for 2007.
To my fellow conspirators, it was a great year. Good luck in 2008!
Up Next - 2008 Predictions! Bye-Bye!!
ARC: St Wendeler