ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Saturday, November 11, 2006

Truth In Campaign Advertising & Terrorist Surveillance

Well, it turns out that this ad by CitizensUnited before the election was right on the money.

The dems are going to completely eliminate our ability to listen to terrorist communications. From the AP

Warrantless wiretaps unlikely to be OK'd

By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press Writer Sat Nov 11, 7:16 AM ET

WASHINGTON - Legislation aimed at President Bush's once-secret program for wiretapping U.S.-foreign phone calls and computer traffic of suspected terrorists without warrants shows all the signs of not moving ahead, notwithstanding President Bush's request this week that a lame-duck Congress give it to him.

Senate Democrats, emboldened by Election Day wins that put them in control of Congress as of January, say they would rather wait until next year to look at the issue. "I can't say that we won't do it, but there's no guarantee that we're going spend a lot of time on controversial measures," Democratic Whip Richard Durbin of Illinois said Thursday.

In Senate parlance, that means no.

Hmmm, the last time we heard from Dickie "The Durb" Durbin was back in 2005. Let's see... what was it he said again?

Oh, yeah... This is an excerpt of Mark Steyn covering the story:
Last Tuesday, Senator Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, quoted a report of U.S. "atrocities" at Guantanamo and then added:
"If I read this to you and did not tell you that it was an FBI agent describing what Americans had done to prisoners in their control, you would most certainly believe this must have been done by Nazis, Soviets in their gulags, or some mad regime -- Pol Pot or others -- that had no concern for human beings."

Er, well, your average low-wattage senator might. But I wouldn't. The "atrocities" he enumerated -- "Not only was the temperature unbearably hot, but extremely loud rap music was being played in the room" -- are not characteristic of the Nazis, the Soviets or Pol Pot, and, at the end, the body count in Gitmo was a lot lower. That's to say, it was zero, which would have been counted a poor day's work in Auschwitz or Siberia or the killing fields of Cambodia.
One measure of a civilized society is that words mean something: "Soviet" and "Nazi" and "Pol Pot" cannot equate to Guantanamo unless you've become utterly unmoored from reality. Spot the odd one out: 1) mass starvation; 2) gas chambers; 3) mountains of skulls; 4) lousy infidel pop music turned up to full volume. One of these is not the same as the others, and Durbin doesn't have the excuse that he's some airhead celeb or an Ivy League professor. He's the second-ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Don't they have an insanity clause?

Dickie & The Dems - You're either really confused about the threat we face or you seriously want this country and our way of life to disappear.

I for one welcome our Islamofascist Overlords. Sharia for me, baby!

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Thursday, November 09, 2006

W's Last Two Years

Why do I have the feeling that this is the return of the Harriet Miers presidency? Remember the Harriet Miers fiasco? I point to that episode because it was one instance where Bush went with his gut instinct - and ran into problems with his conservative base. We started off giving W the benefit of the doubt with Miers, then moved to the neutral camp, and became more negative as more info came out about her.

My gut tells me that W. is a principled guy who will oppose Dem attempts to eradicate the tax cuts and to undermine our efforts in Iraq.

However, keeping the Dems on-board in Iraq isn't the same as keeping the Dems on-board with the "strategery" of transforming the Middle East and bringing them into the 21st 20th century. The cause for my concern is the immediate sacking of Rummy the day after the election. W's gut may have told him that it was the the right step, but it is terrible politics immediately following the election. The only benefit was that it took the Dem "thumping" of the GOP out of the cycle for a few hours - or perhaps changed the direction of the conversation somewhat. The signal that such a sacking sends to our troops, the Democrats, the Iraqi people, and our enemies (in Iraq and elsewhere) is terrible.

I think Rummy did a decent job (two rogue regimes down), although he didn't make many friends in the Pentagon. (Not in the job description, btw.) However, it was clear that he understood the stakes and the larger strategery at play. Hopefully current reports RE Gates being a pure realpolitik guy are over-played. However, the smiles on the faces of the punditry who were already gleeful over the GOP loss that they helped manufacture does not bode well in my book.

I hope that the new SecDef follows the policy and strategery as set by the President - and I hope that this isn't a return to the realpolitik which proved to be disastrous to the US vis-a-vis Islamofascism during the Cold War. Yes, there were bigger priorities then (defeating the USSR - at least, if you weren't Ted Kennedy and the Dems), but the biggest priority in the 21st Century is defeating the ideology of Islamofascism which is consuming our world (see America Alone by Mark Steyn for details).

Only time will tell...

If we return to realpolitik, I'm concerned about our chances of success in the Middle East and around the world.

And if W is willing to return to the realpolitik of Bush I - which resulted in a 12 year semi-hot war with Saddam - then will W. similarly forget the disastrous capitulation of George HW Bush to the Dems on taxes?

Is George Bush's "Democracy In the Middle East" going to be transformed into the foreign policy equivalent of HW Bush's "No New Taxes" pledge?

And could he try and meet the Dems halfway on taxes, raising the top brackets and eliminating the CapGains tax cuts which have proven to be so successful?

I mean, what's in play here? I have to trust W's instincts, but the last time I did, it didn't turn out so well.

*** UPDATE ***
This post by Victor Davis Hanson sheds some light... and I think I trust him more than W. on this.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

50-50 Nation

NoLeftTurns did some number crunching of Tuesday's elections and the results seem to mirror my analysis in most states.

For what it’s worth

I crunched a few numbers this morning and get this preliminary result: Democrats won 51.93% of the gross two-party Congressional vote, while Republicans won 48.07%. In raw numbers, that’s 36.1 million to 33.4 million. There are two things that make these numbers (which I took off the CNN website) inaccurate. First, not all the votes have been counted or recounted. I don’t think, however, that small shifts in the final totals will make a huge difference here. Second, CNN doesn’t provide numbers in races where the candidate runs unopposed. There were 4 unopposed Republicans and 30 unopposed Democrats. In other words, the Democratic edge in the national House totals, corrected for unopposed seats, is surely closer to 53-47 or 54-46.

Of course, these were 435 individual contests, all of which had a national dimension but also a local, individualized dimension. There were blue dog Democrat winners, as well as moderate Republican victors. There were good and bad campaigners. There were scandals to which voters paid attention and those to which they didn’t.

I don’t have comparative data for previous elections in front of me (can anyone point me to some?), so I don’t know how much of a shift this is (I’m betting not more than a couple of percentage points from the last few elections).

The nation remains closely divided.

Stated another way, the entire Democratic margin in the House vote can be found in three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts.

The difference was about 2-3% in many districts and states and in some cases exit polls showed self-described Republicans voting for the Dems. It's clear that a message was sent to the President and the GOP. The question is whether the message will be received correctly or whether we're going to immediate revert to the days of Bob Michels and the perpetual GOP minority.

I think one of the biggest question marks regarding this election is how the Dems act in power. Do they take the long view or do they try to satiate their nutroot base?

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Kossacks Love Iranian Holocaust Cartoons

As featured on the new incarnation of the marginally popular doubleplusgood infotainment blog. (aka DPGI v .2)

And jcrue provides some choice quotes in light of.... ahhh... recent events:

Best description of the elections I’ve seen

Yesterday in the elections the Democrats kicked the Americans’ ass.

Quotes of the Day - Postelection Edition

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. - Marcus Aurelius

Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm. - James Madison

Keep it up jcrue! DPGI v.2 ROCKS!!!

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Analysis of Voter Sentiment from ProteinWisdom

Funny post at ProteinWisdom:

An Alternate Theory On The Election Results [posted by The Colossus]

Of course, an alternate explanation for yesterday’s events is that we are so insanely confident in our abilities in the War on Terror that we’re even willing to put Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in charge of the Congress.

Kind of like playing the second string in a college football blowout.

Garbage time, as it were. With the added mockery of having the misogynistic bastards getting beaten up by a woman. And Nancy Pelosi.

But that’s just a theory. Me, I’m stocking up on ammo and potassium iodide, and practicing my conversational Arabic.
Posted by The Colossus @ 06:19 PM

If only it was "garbage time" in the WOT. I have a feeling that we're closer to the beginning of the war than the end.

Now, if only we could convince the Dems that the war has started.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

John Murtha is a Jackass

Sorry, but I have to just lay it out.

Murtha is on MSNBC, commenting about the replacement of Rumsfeld and he said the following:

The first step to stability is redeploying our troops

Now that he's in the majority in the House, he'd better be prepared to explain what the @#$ he's talking about.

That's just idiotic!!!

What kind of stability? Stability in Iraq? In the Middle East? That's insane! If we "admit defeat and pull out of Iraq," stability is the last thing that will occur in Iraq.

If Murtha's definition of stability is zero casualties for US soldiers, then his statement makes sense. However, I'm not aware of any war in which there are zero casualties....

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Sixer Summary - The Levee Was Topped

First, thanks to the GatewayPundit for joining Another Rovian Conspiracy out at Talent HQ. It was a good time - and the results certainly didn't end up contributing to the entertainment.

Ok, now to summarize the results from 2006.


First, regarding our initial call for Missouri - This is how we feel:

When we called MO, it appeared that St Louis County was breaking 6% for McCaskill - between the results of 2002 and 2004 - and that Talent would edge it out in a squeaker that would've resulted in a recount.

Apparently, that was wrong - and I blame DIEBOLD (and Dewars). As the precincts came in, the final break for McCaskill in St Louis County was by 12%, adding 50,000 votes to McCaskill's tally. This was the back-breaker. Had this stayed at 6%, it would've been close. Also, apparently the early reports about huge voter turnout in Jasper county (Bush at 70% in 2004) were incorrect. In 2004, there were 45,000 total votes in this rural county, with net 20,000 going to Bush. Had last night's the turnout reports been correct, it might have helped had St Louis County come in at 6% for McCaskill.

It looks like Webb is going to carry Virginia. I suspect that Dan Riehl feels the way we do about Missouri right now.

With Webb holding a small lead in Virginia (8,000 votes), the question is whether Allen would be able to improve his tally through a recount - a tricky strategy that normally favors Dems.

We called Virginia for Webb at 11.01 pm and projected that he'd win by 5,000 votes. Not far off the mark.

It looks like Tester is going to pull Montana out... small margin (approx. 2,000 votes)

Congrats to the Democrats
It was a hard-fought campaign with not a lot of specifics. Unfortunately for you, you have to govern now and the voters - apparently "voting for change" - will expect some results. Let's hope that your understanding of the change is in line with what the voters were thinking of when they pulled the lever for the Donks. Problem with your position is that you weren't for anything - and so you are actually for everything that every single voter thought you'd do.

The Progressive Mandate
Now, on to the actually policy initiatives... It's clear that this election was a mandate from America for a move to a more socialist progressive America. In keeping with that I recommend that over the next two years the Democratic Party do the following:
  1. Eliminate the Bush Tax Cuts - everyone likes tax increases and Bush will love to hand you a veto
  2. Start the investigations and subpoena Bush and Cheney. Everyone loves a showdown between the branches of government.
  3. Appoint an impeached former judge to be the head of the House Intelligence committee - that will sure show that "the Culture Of Corruption" is over in Congress. I mean, if you can't trust someone who was impeached for Bribery and Perjury with America's most sensitive secrets, who can you trust?
  4. Propose Universal Healthcare through a government takeover of the healthcare industry... hey, it's what pushed guys like Tester over the top, right?
  5. Kill the Patriot Act (again) - Nobody really believes that you have to stop the terrorists before they attack. It's just a matter of cleaning up the body parts after an attack and then aggressively sicking the FBI on the terrorists. That's how we fight terrorism
  6. Undermine the "illegal" domestic surveillance programs (even though they're only targeting communications from Al Qaeda into the US and are in all likelihood a huge data gathering algorithm keying on certain phrases. Hopefully we won't have to "connect the dots" after another terrorist attack and point to this.
  7. Federal Legislation on Same Sex Marriage - The American people have spoken and they want civil unions and/or full-blown marriage, regardless of gender.
  8. Finally, cut the funding for the Iraq war. Now that you have both chambers of Congress, it's within your power to do so. The American people are tired of the War in Iraq - however, I don't think that the American people are looking to turn Iraq into Vietnam - especially Saigon, circa 1975.
It should be an interesting 2 years. Unfortunately, with the Dems actually holding power for the next 2 years, my bet is that Lefty Moonbat sightings will decrease - as they start to believe that the Rovian Conspiracy really doesn't exist. I guess we'll just have to see about that....

And perhaps W should just let the Dems get what they want with most items, except for the taxcuts and the War On Terror - on which he should make firm stands and veto anything idiotic they push for.

Now - Can anyone tell me how I get to Galt's Gulch?

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Another Rovian Conspiracy Calls Missouri

*** See this update regarding this projection and the midterm in general ***

As long as Riehl World is in the mood, we will be as well.

In 2004, Bush lost St Louis County by 10% (50,000 votes)

In 2002, Talent lost St Louis County by 3% (15,000 votes)

Today, assuming current turnout trend in St Louis County continues (ie, with 31% of precincts reporting, Talent is only losing by 6% of the vote - 6k votes at 31%), we may have good news. Assumption is that St Louis County turns out in between 2004 and 2002 levels, that means that McCaskill will lose the Senate seat by 6,000 votes (approximately).

Recount here we come!

However, Boone County still can come in for McCaskill (Univ. of Missouri), but that's offset by Callaway county and some other out-state counties. St Louis City turnout will not be as big as in 2004 and will not be a major impact.

Clay County is still to report, but it broke for Bush in 2004.

*** UPDATE 1 ***
Jasper County (includes Joplin, MO which was mentioned here) hasn't reported. Potential 20k votes (based on 2004 turnout) for the GOP. Estimates are that turnout in Jasper is 4x the 2004 turnout.

*** UPDATE 2 ***
St Louis County votes that have been counted - 200,000.

St Louis County total votes in 2002 and 2004 - 400,000 to 500,000.

Currently the votes are breaking 52% to McCaskill which is not atypical. Hope is that the turnout is closer to 400k than 500k... and that Talent does better than Bush since he's from St Louis County and ran a flawless campaign.

McCaskill has now increased her lead in St Louis County from 6% to 10%. If that continues, this is probably over.

Jasper County can perhaps deliver >20k votes - as they did in 2004 for Bush... this will likely go down to recount, with McCaskill as certified by Sec of State Robin Carnahan (D-MO). Only question is whether Talent will press the issue.

I blame Diebold

*** UPDATE 3 ***
McCaskill is now up 40,000 with Jasper still yet to report. Unfortunately, Jasper is unlikely to deliver that amount. Question is whether GOP portion of St Louis County is still to report or whether that's already in the number.

Painful... and it looks like the call is now solidly to McCaskill. However, if the Dems can bitch about some 120,000 vote conspiracy in Ohio's 2004 election, perhaps I can bitch about some 40,000 win by McCaskill?

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian

Another Rovian Conspiracy Calls VA & TN

Jim Webb Wins Virginia Senate Seat.

My guess is by 5,00 votes, which means that there's going to be a recount.

The only county outstanding in VA is Charlottesville... 89% precincts reporting and Webb leading 77% to 22%.

Assuming that trend continues, it's his seat - pending a recount.

Corker wins Tennessee.... no recount needed, but this is a hold for the GOP

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Cruella DeVille Takes The House

Well, let the kicking of puppies begin!!!

(And by "puppies," I mean aggressively fighting the War on Terror, tax cuts, and illegal immigration)

Congratulations to Speaker Pelosi.

I now have to go throw up...

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Bring Out Your Dead

Talent's lead is only 50,000 right now with 800k votes counted.

Apparently, St Louis City and and Kansas City are trying to figure out how many votes McCaskill needs to turn the tide.

Given the current margin, not good for Talent....

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler


The Kiss of Death for the Lamont campaign is below...

And Lamont captured the imagination of Progressive America alright. Unfortunately for them, he didn't capture the votes.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Rovian Conspiracy - Sixer Live Blog

Continued liveblogging of Election 2006. See the comments for the updates.

Pic of the liveblogging... will be moving to hear Talent in a few.

*** UPDATE ***
What's wrong with this picture??? Click for larger image.

More precincts reporting in TN and same margin... yet they haven't called the TN race for Corker.

I mean, it's quite apparent that many of these races are being called based on exit polling - and I thought that 2004 proved that exit polling is bogus.

Unless you live in the MSM bubble of NYC and Wash DC and believe that John Forbes Kerry is President right now.

*** UPDATE 2 ***
The Corner suspects what I suspect. Hey, guys - can I get a job?

**** ARC: Brian update ***

I'm not seeing the wave..... Anybody else? What I see is LOTS and LOTS of close races.


Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

The Conspiracy will be Liveblogging this evening

New thread here

ARC: Brian and I will be meeting up with Jim from GatewayPundit at the Talent for Senate party this evening. We'll be liveblogging the results - the good, the bad, and the ugly.

So, check back here and at GatewayPundit throughout the evening for our take.

*************** 6:15 CST ARC: Brian *****************
The Saint and I are now set up in our favorite place to watch a political campaign in action... The bar. Looks like the first few races are in. Nothing too surprising so far. CNN has a pretty good table of winners they've called here.

**************6:39 CST ARC:St Wendeler *************
CNN is projecting that Virginia Gay Marriage Ban has been approved, 62% to 38% with 5% precincts approving. If this trend continues, this is one indication as to why we shouldn't believe pre-election polls... Before the election, polls showed the measure would pass with just 53% approving.

More importantly, this shows that the VA GOP is turning out in record numbers and Allen will take the Senate. RNC is reporting that the GOP turnout in VA is higher than it was in 2004 - amazing for a midterm.

****** 7:07 CST ARC: Brian ***************

I'm hearing from sources that have been watching MSNBC, that they have reported that Joplin, MO ran out of ballots. Joplin is in Jasper county, which went 70/30 for Bush in 2004. Supposedly voters are able to vote on photocopies, which will then be transferred to real ballots, when more are printed. Turnout in Joplin is supposed to be around twice 2004 levels. If any of this is ture, that can't be good news for McCaskill. Support in rural Missouri is essential for a McCaskill win.

Geetings from the Left Coast...


****** ARC: Brian 7:17 ******
Looks like The News-Leader from Springfield is reporting that records will be shattered for voters this time around.

And hey Monterey, jump on in with your own observations... Or is the left coast sitting this one out, other than voting for the Terminator.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler


Left Coast is here... early numbers in Indiana and Kentucky not looking so good. Allen still breathing in Virginia. Indiana and Kentucky house races looking not so good.

Left Coast


House races in New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana will tell the tale. We should know soon.

MontereyJohn Way out West


Fox just called Pa for Casey. Damn.



Let's continue the conversation in the comments of this thread. (Don't want us to walk over each other's observations.)

Early Results

The Nets should now have exit polls... and based on the expressions on the faces of all the journalists that I've seen, it's not good...

House is certainly lost... Senate may lost as well. If you haven't voted, get out there.

The Conspiracy commands you...


Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Corker Workers in Knoxville

Thanks to Instapundit for this showing of how our people behave as opposed to how the other side acts.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: MontereyJohn

Global Warming Update - Al, Call Your Office!

Gee, wonder why we never heard this in the MSM? Algore must be having a fit over this one H/T to Drudge.



* 52nd coolest October on record (1895-2006).
* All regions near to or below normal temperature (first time since February 2003 with no regions above average temperature).
* Only 2 states above normal temperatures in October: New Hampshire and Texas.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: MontereyJohn

Robin Carnahan, playing politics with voting ID

Robin Carnahan is Missouri's secretary of state, and as such responsible for the states elections. She was also opposed to the Voter ID law in Missouri (now overturned) that required a picture ID to vote.

Imagine my surprise then when I saw the following AP story (H/T from Greg Pollowitz over at

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. - Missouri's chief elections official said Monday she was asked for photo identification at the voting booth despite a court ruling striking down the requirement.

"I'm guessing this may be happening in other parts of the state," warned Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat who had opposed Republican efforts to mandate a photo ID in Missouri.

She said that a worker at the St. Louis Election Board asked her three times to show photo ID when she went to cast an absentee ballot Friday.

Carnahan said that she tried to explain a photo ID was not necessary, but that the election worker replied that she was instructed to ask for one anyway. Carnahan said she eventually was allowed to vote without displaying a photo identification.

"To have that experience personally was very troubling," she said.

The travesty! Why I'm sure it shook Ms. Carnahan to the core! I call BS.

The Missouri Supreme Court last month upheld a lower court's ruling overturning a law that would have required voters to show a photo ID issued by the state or federal government.

Scott Leiendecker, the Republican director of the St. Louis Election Board, said he immediately addressed the issue after Carnahan told him about it. The employee said she had asked Carnahan for a form of identification and indicated that a photo ID is typically what people show, but did not demand a photo ID, Leiendecker said.

As to be expected. Photo ID is the easiest form. And almost everybody has one, which is why the Voter ID law was passed. It provided a better solution than what we have currently to prevent voter fraud.

"I respect the secretary very much, she's a very nice lady, but I'm sorry about what she seems to think of us," he said.

St. Louis election workers are trained to mention a photo document as one option for identification, Leiendecker said, but not to require it.

In other words, Leiendecker called BS as well. Nice try, Ms. Carnahan. But stop trying to rig the vote for your party, and instead help the state prevent voter fraud.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian

Kossacks Reminisce about 2004

Saw this post over at DailyKos:

Open Thread
by openthread
Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 06:42:02 AM PST

Eminem's Mosh is as relevant today as it was in 2004:

LOL - Yeah... it worked so well in 2004. That "Youth Vote" really turned out for the Presidential election...

I also seem to remember wild-eyed predictions about a Dean victory in the Iowa primary... unfortunately, the orange-hatted nutroots that invaded Iowa were clueless and ended up turning off the down-to-earth Iowa electorate.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Media Fund ad, Talent wants to kill you!

Last night, while getting my daughter ready for her bath, I saw the following ad from the "Media Fund," attacking Jim Talent for his vote against federal funding of embryonic stem cell research.

It is the most despicable ad I've seen in this campaign season. As this parody points out, its also very selfish.

But hey, let's not get in the way by talking science. We want our cures now! Anybody that opposes my ideas of whats right and wrong must want to maim, torture, and kill me!

If she has any self-respect, McCaskill should denounce this ad immediately!


Of course, Conspirators all know that Media Fund is a Soros-backed organization - one of his many 527s which he's hoping will sway the election. Here's the info from Discover The Networks (a great tool for any member of the Vast Right-Wing / Rovian Conspiracy):

[The Media Fund] was founded by Harold Ickes, a Democrat lobbyist and strategist who is widely recognized as the chief organizer of the Shadow Party. After passage of the McCain-Feingold Act of March 27, 2002, Ickes helped put George Soros together with such activists as Andrew Stern, Ellen R. Malcolm, Steve Rosenthal, Gina Glantz, Cecile Richards and others who were seeking ways to circumvent McCain-Feingold's soft-money ban. While Malcolm, Glantz and Rosenthal were cobbling together the coalition of labor unions, pro-abortion activists and environmentalists that would later emerge as America Coming Together (ACT), Ickes sought to organize what he informally called a "media fund" -- or sometimes "the president's media fund" -- a Section 527 stealth PAC that would raise money for campaign advertising. Ickes finally decided to simply call it The Media Fund, launching it in early 2003.

Ahh, Soros and his Leftist millionaire buddies... men of the people!

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian

Monday, November 06, 2006


Some 9+ hours till polls open on the east coast, time for us to put our predictions in place. Note, that we don't have a crystal ball, or anything, and most of this is just "gut" feelings. However, being plugged into the Conspiracy that's responsible for the rain in Ohio and Pennsylvania today certainly could be seen as an advantage.


Hardest to predict, but I'm going with a Dem takeover and *shudder* Speaker Pelosi. Dems pick up 16-22 seats. If we see Santorum close, or Steele taking over Maryland, expect to hit the lower number of this range, but I don't see how the republicans can maintain control. I'd like to be surprised though.
Going out on a limb, R's barely maintain control, lose 10 seats
St Wendeler
Rove pulls it out and GOP keeps control - by 2 seats.
RaceBrianJohnSt Wendeler
OH-DewineLossLoss (?)Loss

Control of Senate:
Brian - 52 R / 47 D
John - ??
St Wendeler - 53 R / 46 D

Lieberman vs. Lamont:
Brian - Much to the netroots "surprise," Lieberman wins... handily... with an early call. He'll be in bed before midnight.

St Wendeler - Lieberman wins, but it's closer than Brian thinks (within 3 points) because of ballot confusion. Anti-Lamont fever keeps 2 of 3 CT House Seats in GOP hands.

MO Amendments & Propositions
Amendment 1 Proposition B ($6.50 minimum wage indexed to the CPI):
Brian - Defeated
St Wendeler - Defeated

Amendment 2 (Pro-cloning "anti-cloning" amendment to the MO constitution):
Defeated - "Just too tricky" I've seen a lot of movement on this issue in the press, and the negative ads being brought out on the issue have only heightened the intensity. Last I saw, the issue was tied 47-47.
St Wendeler
To quote the Gateway Pundit, Jesus, Suppan, and Kurt Warner trump Alex P. Keaton any day... It's a squeaker, but it doesn't pass because Missourians haven't been shown enough about the measure and its implications
Amendment 3 ($0.04 per cigarette tax):
Brian - Passes

St Wendeler
Passes, effective ads with people saying "Hey, I don't smoke so I won't have to pay the tax." And with the promise that the money will only go to healthcare, many voters will bite on this one. I seem to recall similar language regarding gambling a few years ago....

Summary & Spin Analysis from Brian:
In short, the Republicans have some momentum, the last 72 hours has shown that. The Republicans have the better GOTV effort, spearheaded by the Architect, and their experience in 2002, and 2004.

Ok, how about the post-election prognostication?

The Spin from a Steele win will be that Republicans played the race card, while a Corker win will be that Tennesseans are closet racists.

A Democratic takeover of the House will be greeted with talk of a "mandate," with immediate calls for minimum wage increases, troop withdrawal schedules, talk about defunding the war (while supporting the troops!), investigations, and finally censure of the President and Vice-President. The media will revive the stories from the end of Clinton's term about how censure is basically the same thing as impeachment.

Polls will be found to be inaccurate through much of the election season. A variety of factors will be found for this, although I think the real reason is that people just don't want to answer the phone anymore.

And finally, if by some chance, the Repubicans are able to hold onto both the House and the Senate, there will be virtual rioting going on over at DU and Kos. There will be no way that the 'verdict' of the people will be accepted. Rovian Conspiracies involving Diebold, the pentaverate, and mysterious "magic smart cards" will become prevalent.

It will be hilarious...

*** UPDATE ***
Wizbang has a roundup of predictions - although made several hours after this one.

ARC and GatewayPundit will be liveblogging the election from Sen. Talent HQ.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian

Not Exactly "The Sands of Iwo Jima" - Abu Ghraib Documentary

Hollywood shouldn't surprise me any more, but this one was a bit of a jolt. The first, the very first, thing to come out of Sodom and Gamorah regarding this war is a documentary on the Abu Ghraib mess. Disgusting as that episode was, there are far bigger, not to mention more important, stories to tell. Look how these folks choose to spend their money. I'm confident the investors will take a bath on this one. One can only guess what these people are thinking.

From Drudge:

By Gregg Goldstein

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Oscar-winning documentary veteran Errol Morris is developing a documentary about the Abu Ghraib prison scandal in Iraq.

The film will examine the infamous abuse and torture of inmates held as suspected terrorists in the Iraqi prison located 20 miles (32 kilometres) west of Baghdad. The scandal was revealed in 2004 when photos of inmates being tortured were published around the world.

It will be backed by Sony Pictures Classics, which released his last film, the Oscar-winning 2003 documentary "The Fog of War," and by Participant Prods., the socially conscious financier of the hit documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" as well as "The World According to Sesame Street."

Participant's executive vp documentary production Diane Weyermann announced the project during a seminar Sunday at the American Film Market in Santa Monica. Sony Classics officials declined comment.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: MontereyJohn

Daily KOS - Winning is Irrelevant (?)

I saw this gem on KOS's rant today. Apparently they are kicking a$$ and taking names... well, taking names anyway.

CT-Sen: Lieberman is making a list. So are we.
by kos
Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:10:02 AM PST

Joementum dreams of payback:

The Lieberman campaign is feeling both feisty and confident. They can start checking names off their list of Democrats who turned on the three term incumbent after his August primary defeat.

The Lieberman people took delight early last week in telling a story of John Kerry's rebuff by Senate Democratic leaders when he lobbied them to lend some aid to Democrat aristocrat Ned Lamont's flagging campaign. Lieberman's campaign is delighted it still has friends in high places. They received added satisfaction when Lieberman got to pile on Kerry mid-week as the haughty Massachusetts neighbor limped off the campaign field.

There will be a full accounting after the election. Whether he wins or loses is irrelevant. Democrats made a choice between the grassroots/netroots and Joe Lieberman. That choice will haunt them for a long, long time.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: MontereyJohn

Wiretap Ad

This ad is great... and that has nothing to do with the fact that I came up with this concept back this spring.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Steyn On Kerry & The Dems of 2006

Read the whole thing... here's an excerpt:

So [the Democrats'] "support" is objectively worthless. The indignant protest that "of course" "we support our troops" isn't support, it's a straddle, and one that emphasizes the Democrats' frivolousness in the post-9/11 world. A serious party would have seen the jihad as a profound foreign-policy challenge they needed to address credibly. They could have found a Tony Blair -- a big mushy-leftie pantywaist on health and education and all the other sissy stuff, but a man at ease with the projection of military force in the national interest. But we saw in Connecticut what happens to Democrats who run as Blairites: You get bounced from the ticket. In the 2004 election, instead of coming to terms with it as a national security question, the Democrats looked at the war on terror merely as a Bush wedge issue they needed to neutralize. And so they signed up with the weirdly incoherent narrative of John Kerry -- a celebrated anti-war activist suddenly "reporting for duty" as a war hero and claiming that, even though the war was a mistake and his comrades were murderers and rapists, his four months in the Mekong rank as the most epic chapter in the annals of the Republic.

It's worth contrasting the fawning media admiration for Kerry's truncated tour of duty with their total lack of interest in Bob Dole's years of service two presidential campaigns earlier. That convention night in Boston was one of the freakiest presentations in contemporary politics: a man being greeted as a combination of Alexander the Great and the Duke of Wellington for a few weeks' service in a war America lost. But Kerry is the flesh-and-blood embodiment of the Democratic straddle, of the we-oppose-the-war-but-support-our-troops line. That's why anti-war Dems, outspinning themselves, decided they could support a soldier who opposed a war. And as Kerry demonstrates effortlessly every time he opens his mouth, if you detach the heroism of a war from the morality of it, what's left but braggadocio? Or, as the senator intoned to me back in New Hampshire when I tried to ask what he would actually do about Iraq, Iran or anything else, "Sometimes truly courageous leadership means having the courage not to show any leadership." (I quote from memory.)
To be sure, like Kerry in 2004 deciding that the murderers and rapists were now his brave "band of brothers," the left often discover a sudden enthusiasm for the previous war once a new one's come along. Since Iraq, they've been all in favor of Afghanistan, though back in the fall of 2001 they were convinced it was a quagmire, graveyard of empire, unwinnable, another Vietnam, etc. Oh, and they also discovered a belated enthusiasm for the first President Bush's shrewd conduct of the 1991 Gulf War, though at the time Kerry and most other Democrats voted against that one, too. In this tedious shell game, no matter how frantically the left shuffles the cups, you never find the one shriveled pea of The Military Intervention We're Willing To Support When it Matters.

What an amazing writer...

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Ace in the Noose

Well, it looks like justice will be delivered (belatedly) to Saddam. He's gone from being the Ace in the Hole to the Ace in the Noose:

Saddam Hussein To Hang
Updated: 13:05, Sunday November 05, 2006

Angry, shaking and defiant, Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death this morning by hanging for ordering the massacre of Iraqi civilians.

"Allahu Akbar!" (God is Greatest) and "Long live the nation!", he shouted, pointing defiantly at the judge as the verdict was delivered.

Looking away in disgust, and then staring angrily back at the judge he continued to shout "Long live the people and death to their enemies. Long live the glorious nation, and death to its enemies!"

He had refused to stand for the verdict and had to be lifted to his feet by two court bailiffs.

"Make him stand," the judge ordered as the former president stayed seated.

He then stood in silence and waited for his fate to be announced to the world.

Saddam was convicted of ordering the deaths of 148 Shia men and teenage boys in the town of Dujail in 1982.

The Sunnis are not pleased... the Shia are. Personally, if I were the head of the police force in the Maliki government, I would be very interested in the names of people that are shouting their support for Saddam. These are the hearts and minds that need to be converted - and some of them are not reachable.

Also, the silence over at DU and DailyKos speak volumes. Their only references to it are about this being a Rovian November surprise. Perhaps it's because one of their heroes, Ramsey Clark, is part of Saddam's defense team.

Michelle Malkin is also covering.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler