ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Sunday, December 31, 2006

ARC's 2006 Predictions - A Harsh Review

Unlike many prognosticators in the blogosphere (and the web in general), we here at Another Rovian Conspiracy grade our previous year's predictions and poke fun of the conspirator with the fewest correct responses.

As you'll recall, our 2006 predictions were in the following categories:

  1. The War On Terror / Foreign Policy
  2. Domestic Politics
  3. Judicial
  4. Media & Blogs
  5. Financial & Economic
Each prediction will be scored on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 going to the most accurate (and humorous) prediction. 2 pts will be awarded for making a prediction... 0 pts only for not making a prediction at all - and yes, one of our conspirators did that several times. I'll provide the overall score for each category and highlight a few of the predictions that were absolutely correct, absolutely wrong, or just plain humorous.

On with the review! (MJ = Monterey John, B = Brian, SW = St Wendeler)

War On Terror/Foreign Policy
War On TerrorMJBSWComments
Iraq Troop Levels6105St Wendeler totally off, but predicts Zarqawi's capture/demise.
Hotspot in WOT662
More Elections in Mid East?888
Status of Kim Jong Il?888
Bashar Assad in power?882
PA-Official state of Hamas?858Fine line on this one...
WOT in AP?222
More Socialists in LA828
Blair as PM?288
UN in Iraq?101010
Major Terror Attack-US?222
Major Terror Attack-EU?222
NSA Surveillance888
Subtotals787973 Total Points Possible - 130

Domestic Politics
MJBSWComments
Bush Impeached101010
Libby Convicted?101010SW - "No, Fitz loses steam after he finally gets around to reading one of Tom Maguire's posts at JustOneMinute and realizes that Plame wasn't covered under the law and everyone knew that she worked at the CIA"
Rove Indicted?10104St Wendeler gets an extra 2 for poking fun of Fitzy
Delay Convicted?101010
Dean still DNC Chair?282
Reid as Senate Leader882
Pelosi as House Leader?889Extra pt to St Wendeler for creativity - Yes, but has yet another plastic surgery after the mid-terms, thinking that it will help. Unfortunately, we can now see her prefrontal cortex.
Party Control of Senate?222WRONG WRONG WRONG
Governorships?202Brian - "Dunno"
2008 Candidates Announce?889SW predicts Biden premature announcement, Romney's trips to NH
Governator in CA?282
Bush Approval Rating?222WRONG!!
Immigration?101010
Subtotal849475Total Possible Points - 130

Judiciary
MJBSWComments
Alito Confirmed?101010
Nuclear Option?101010
3rd Nominee?223St Wendeler pokes fun of Schumer, Leahy, et al
Subtotal222223Total Possible - 30

Media & Blogs
MJBSWComments
PJMedia Still Exists?888SW predicts possible change in name to Lingerie Media or Victoria's Open Secret to “sex up” the site
ARC Still In Existence?8108Brian's Prediction – Possibly... which is probably more accurate than “Yes”
Biggest Blogger to Hang it up?522MJ Predicts other gigs for Malkin
Biggest Blog Scandal?404SW predicts revelation that all DailyKos commenters are actually employees of NYTimes
Olberman still on air?283
O'Reilly still on air?888
Air America still on air?448SW: Yes, but Al Franken & Randi Rhodes have to say "Soros is a GOD" at the top of each hour.
Subtotals394041Total Possible - 70

Financial / Economic
MJBSWComments
Unemployment Rate1036B predicts a 4% swing in unemployment. How gutsy!
Annual GDP Growth663Using 3Q #s
Stock Market Up or Down for the year?668SW predicts 12k; Actual 12.5k
Google's Stock Price?2107Actual: 460; Brian: 460; SW: 500 (which it reaches in late Nov)
Tax cuts permanent?222
Social Security “reformed”?101010SW: Kick the can down the road. In 10 years, Dems will complain about the lack of resolve by Bush to solve the problem.
Tax System “reformed”?1044
Subtotals464140


Final Score
Out of 430 possible points... Brian edges out Monterey John.

Brian - 276 points
Monterey John - 269 points
St Wendeler - 252 Points


Congratulations to Brian for his 2006 predictions. He could've done better if he didn't answer "Dunno" on several items.

Up next - 2007 predictions!

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Comments (2)
Brian said...

woohooo! im the prognosticator-extrodinaire. I expect salutes or bows from now on. Curtsey's are acceptable, but only if your wearing a skirt....

St Wendeler said...

what about a kilt?

I might add that the scoring was completely arbitrary... but resisted the temptation to crown myself the winner.