ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Rovian Conspiracy - Sixer Live Blog

Continued liveblogging of Election 2006. See the comments for the updates.

Pic of the liveblogging... will be moving to hear Talent in a few.




*** UPDATE ***
What's wrong with this picture??? Click for larger image.

More precincts reporting in TN and same margin... yet they haven't called the TN race for Corker.

I mean, it's quite apparent that many of these races are being called based on exit polling - and I thought that 2004 proved that exit polling is bogus.

Unless you live in the MSM bubble of NYC and Wash DC and believe that John Forbes Kerry is President right now.

*** UPDATE 2 ***
The Corner suspects what I suspect. Hey, guys - can I get a job?

**** ARC: Brian update ***

I'm not seeing the wave..... Anybody else? What I see is LOTS and LOTS of close races.

**************************

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler

Comments (60)
Brian said...

So its not looking great, but it looks like mostly the dem seats are going dem, with a few pickups. Still stand by my predictions of a Dem house pickup, and a Republican senate.

Allen/Webb is going to come down to the wire.


The Talent group is mostly quiet here. I think becaues its just too soon to tell. One things for sure, the campaign gave it its all. Voter turnout is up across the state.

Brian said...

Looking at CNN's , I'm not seeing a lot of incumbents losing.. Which is to be expected.

Brian said...

Too bad for the nutroots. Lieberman just projected as the winner in CT.

Monterey John said...

So far, not really too bad in the House, but there are a bunch of R incumbents not called yet.

Monterey John said...

Fox just called Md for Cardin

Monterey John said...

Fox dumped exit polling. They compared actual votes to interviews, and there was a 6-8% Democratic bias in the exit poll.

St Wendeler said...

Yeah, just saw that on the CNN site. Checked the votes by county - weird thing is that only 2 counties are reporting thus far - and only at single or low double-digits.

They have to be calling this based on exit polls.

St Wendeler said...

Looking at Rhode Island, too. CNN has called it for Whitehouse, but there are only 950 votes counted.

I think they're calling these races based on exit polls, and if there's a 6-8% point bias for Dems in them, then the nets and CNN may have to backtrack quickly.

I thought we learned our lesson in 2004?????

St Wendeler said...

Analyzed County by County between 2004 and Steele's race. So far, Steele is doing slightly better than W. in counties that are reporting.

MD went to Kerry by 55%, so it's not like MD is out of reach. CNN must be calling this based on exit polls, and I think it'll be closer than an early call would warrant.

just my two cents...

Monterey John said...

Lincoln Chafee is gone. Now there is a heartbreaker for you.

Monterey John said...

I'm surprised, Rs are only down three House seats and it is nearly 10:00 on the East Coast.

Looks like Foley's seat in Fl might be held. Whoa baby! They voted for Mark Foley! Who woulda thunk it!

Brian said...

Santorum just conceded. There's room in the Republican party for him still. He'll end up in the administration someplace I'm sure.

latest news I'm hearing around the Talent folks is Talent up 4%.

Looks like Allen is up 25k votes with almost 92% reporting. It's definetely going to come down to the wire.

Monterey John said...

They had Talent on Fox for a few minutes. Hope Mike's football game goes well :)

Brian said...

The Saint and Gateway Pundit Jim were off to watch the talen speech. I'm holding the fort here in Blogger central.. I.e. the bar.

Monterey John said...

Va exit polls were WAY off, huge Democrat bias.

We've dropped three house seats in Indiana, one in Kentucky and one in Connecticut so far.

Monterey John said...

Speaking of the bar... remember to order a Tanquaray Gibson, straight up, is memory of montereyJohn.

Monterey John said...

Just dropped one, Padget, in Ohio and Sherwood in PA is gone I'm afraid this is the beginning of the slide we have been expecting.

St Wendeler said...

Talent holds early lead, by 35k out of 400k total votes counted.

I think we're seeing House going to Dems... and Senate will be kept by GOP.

Brian said...

I don't see a way to hold the house based the numbers I'm seeing.

That being said, I'm seeing reminders of 2004. Calling the Dem seats early.. Holding out for the republican seats.

Talent up 10% so far with about 20% reporting.

Brian said...

CNN called for Shimkus, guess Foley didn't affect that much...

Monterey John said...

That's good news in Missouri. My years of counting Missouri votes tell me southwest comes in before the cities, so we need all the margin we can get.

The House is toast. We're getting hammered. Just lost another House seat in Florida and one in New York.

How are the House guys doing in Missouri?

Nutabaq said...

What's the mood like at the Talent headquarters now?

Michelle said...

It looks like the Saint has been outed... what will the media do with this one...

Desert Rat said...

Desert Rat here, checking in from the Left Coast.

Brian said...

Mood at the Talent area in the words of one insider "Eddie" is cautiously optimistic.

Monterey John said...

Welcome Desert Rat (my old roomate from Westminster College).

St Wendeler said...

Virginia statute says recount is allowed if within 1%... May come down to that.

desert Rat said...

I just came back from my polling place. There was a line with a 30-minute wait. I don't ever recall such a turnout for an off-year election.

Brian said...

Keep the comments coming folks, we are in a "bubble" around here of a sorts. So its good to see what the rest of the world is seeing..

Monterey John said...

Anita says I have to eat now... says I have to come in :) Back in a bit.

Brian said...

Oh come on... come out and play with us...

Desert Rat said...

The poll have closed here on the West Coast. We should be getting some meaningful results now. It's crunch time, gents.

St Wendeler said...

Lieberman called in CT.

Here's my tribute to DailyKos's impact on the race.

St Wendeler said...

Talent's lead may not be enough to hold off McCaskill's urban push and the ultimate in Democratic Party Politics --> Bring Out Your Dead

desert Rat said...

I'm monitoring the California Secretary of State's office. I should have some results shortly.

michelle said...

Local Fox 2 News just announced that the Dems have taken the House... what are you hearing?

desert Rat said...

Early California returns show Arnold with a comfortable lead. Unfortunately Jerry Brown is ahead for Attorney General...go figure. The interesting one is for Lt. Gov. where it's neck and neck with an old line Democrat and a hard core conservative Republican.

Monterey John said...

OK, I'm back.

Brian said...

Congratulations Speaker Pelosi.

Now you get to lead, enjoy it.

Brian said...

Moonbeam as the chief law enforcement officer.. whoda thunk..

Well it is California.

Monterey John said...

I just saw some numbers on Kyl in Az. Geeze, where did this Dem come from? I'd heard it might be a race, but I didn't believe it. Ooops, Fox just called it for Kyl.

Allen's lead down to 13k with 60k or so to count.

desert Rat said...

Both Arnold and Moonbeam maintaining comfortable leads with 2% of the precints reporting. It looks like McClintock, the Republican for Lt. Gov., has fallen behind by about two points.

Monterey John said...

Brown really is not all that bad. Pretty good mayor of Oakland. I did not recognize the place when I came home in 2004. It's a boom town. However, it has a serious crime problem still.

Interesting note, he let his law license lapse. From what I understand he is not qualified to be AG. You have to had your ticket for five years. I think he got his back about three years ago.

but, like wow man, this is California and we are kinda informal about such things.

Michelle said...

STL local news leading viewers to believe that Amendment 2 is not doing well, but of course STL city, county and KC city, county not counted yet... STL city votes to be counted within the hour... per local news.

St Wendeler said...

Congratulations to Speaker Pelosi


*BRAP*

Brian said...

You know who's kicking himself right now? Richard Gephardt.b

Desert Rat said...

"Speaker Pelosi"

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Michelle said...

Where are my blog buddies when the local news pans the crowd at the Talent Party? Local news has been covering the Talent Party quite heavily (oddly enough)

St Wendeler said...

Insanity on display over at FireDogLake

If FDL and Lamont are taking credit for the non-wave Dem takeover of the House, what the heck happened in the bluest of blue states?

And what the heck happened with Shays in CT? If "the narrative" was changed by Lamont, why does it appear (at this hour) that CT will still have GOP reps in the House?

Jane, You Ignorant Slut.

Monterey John said...

Connecticut also elected a Republican governor.

St Wendeler said...

Here's some video from Talent HQ from a few hours ago...

not much, more to follow.

Michelle said...

It's been fun... I'm out... I think this will be one to be called maybe tomorrow, maybe in a week. I'm sure I won't miss much in the next 6 hours of sleep. Thanks for the fun, ARC.

Monterey John said...

I am just noticing Norah O'Donnell. Holy smokes! Rush is right, her bath water could not possibly smell bad.

Was there an election today? And my name would be? Who the heck is Ah-nold?

St Wendeler said...

Webb takes VA Senate.

Recount is sure to follow...

Strangely, CNN has data that is more up to date than the VA Sec of the Commonwealth, which we've been following all night.

Monterey John said...

That just makes Norah O'Donnell all the more important to my way of thinking.

If I didn't laugh, I'd cry.

We are in for some tough times. Pray for the troops and the country. I fear we are in for another 9/11.

Brian said...

It's not looking good for Talent. He needs more votes than he has for the remaining urban areas....

Monterey John said...

i agree with Brian's assessment.

Well, I guess we founnd out what the worst possible scenario was. Tennessee is the last holdout. If that goes, it's a clean sweep.

Brian said...

TN is ok. Its going to be Corker in the end.

I think Talent will win by 10k votes. We'll see though. Both VA/MO are going to be recount territory though. If tester wins in MT, those recounts are going to be Florida all over again.

Brian said...

For what it's worht, the Saint and I have called Talent for MO, by about 6k votes. That being said FOX is saying she's up 49/48, so who the F*$%k knows.....

Monterey John said...

Well, pretty bad night.

G'night fellow conspirators. Take a few days to lick our wounds, then we'll be back at them. As Ah-nold might say... well, you know what he might say.