ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Monday, November 06, 2006

Predictions...

Some 9+ hours till polls open on the east coast, time for us to put our predictions in place. Note, that we don't have a crystal ball, or anything, and most of this is just "gut" feelings. However, being plugged into the Conspiracy that's responsible for the rain in Ohio and Pennsylvania today certainly could be seen as an advantage.

House:


Brian
Hardest to predict, but I'm going with a Dem takeover and *shudder* Speaker Pelosi. Dems pick up 16-22 seats. If we see Santorum close, or Steele taking over Maryland, expect to hit the lower number of this range, but I don't see how the republicans can maintain control. I'd like to be surprised though.
MontereyJohn
Going out on a limb, R's barely maintain control, lose 10 seats
St Wendeler
Rove pulls it out and GOP keeps control - by 2 seats.
Senate:
RaceBrianJohnSt Wendeler
OH-DewineLossLoss (?)Loss
PA-SantorumLossLossLoss
RI-ChafeeLossLossLoss
MT-BurnsWinWinWin
VA-AllenWinWinWin
TN-CorkerWinWinWin
NJ-KeanLossLossWin
MD-SteeleWinWinWin
MO-TalentWINWINWIN

Control of Senate:
Brian - 52 R / 47 D
John - ??
St Wendeler - 53 R / 46 D

Lieberman vs. Lamont:
Brian - Much to the netroots "surprise," Lieberman wins... handily... with an early call. He'll be in bed before midnight.

St Wendeler - Lieberman wins, but it's closer than Brian thinks (within 3 points) because of ballot confusion. Anti-Lamont fever keeps 2 of 3 CT House Seats in GOP hands.

MO Amendments & Propositions
Amendment 1 Proposition B ($6.50 minimum wage indexed to the CPI):
Brian - Defeated
St Wendeler - Defeated

Amendment 2 (Pro-cloning "anti-cloning" amendment to the MO constitution):
Brian
Defeated - "Just too tricky" I've seen a lot of movement on this issue in the press, and the negative ads being brought out on the issue have only heightened the intensity. Last I saw, the issue was tied 47-47.
St Wendeler
To quote the Gateway Pundit, Jesus, Suppan, and Kurt Warner trump Alex P. Keaton any day... It's a squeaker, but it doesn't pass because Missourians haven't been shown enough about the measure and its implications
Amendment 3 ($0.04 per cigarette tax):
Brian - Passes

St Wendeler
Passes, effective ads with people saying "Hey, I don't smoke so I won't have to pay the tax." And with the promise that the money will only go to healthcare, many voters will bite on this one. I seem to recall similar language regarding gambling a few years ago....

Summary & Spin Analysis from Brian:
In short, the Republicans have some momentum, the last 72 hours has shown that. The Republicans have the better GOTV effort, spearheaded by the Architect, and their experience in 2002, and 2004.

Ok, how about the post-election prognostication?

The Spin from a Steele win will be that Republicans played the race card, while a Corker win will be that Tennesseans are closet racists.

A Democratic takeover of the House will be greeted with talk of a "mandate," with immediate calls for minimum wage increases, troop withdrawal schedules, talk about defunding the war (while supporting the troops!), investigations, and finally censure of the President and Vice-President. The media will revive the stories from the end of Clinton's term about how censure is basically the same thing as impeachment.

Polls will be found to be inaccurate through much of the election season. A variety of factors will be found for this, although I think the real reason is that people just don't want to answer the phone anymore.

And finally, if by some chance, the Repubicans are able to hold onto both the House and the Senate, there will be virtual rioting going on over at DU and Kos. There will be no way that the 'verdict' of the people will be accepted. Rovian Conspiracies involving Diebold, the pentaverate, and mysterious "magic smart cards" will become prevalent.

It will be hilarious...

*** UPDATE ***
Wizbang has a roundup of predictions - although made several hours after this one.

ARC and GatewayPundit will be liveblogging the election from Sen. Talent HQ.

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian