ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Another Rovian Conspiracy Calls Missouri

*** See this update regarding this projection and the midterm in general ***

As long as Riehl World is in the mood, we will be as well.

In 2004, Bush lost St Louis County by 10% (50,000 votes)

In 2002, Talent lost St Louis County by 3% (15,000 votes)

Today, assuming current turnout trend in St Louis County continues (ie, with 31% of precincts reporting, Talent is only losing by 6% of the vote - 6k votes at 31%), we may have good news. Assumption is that St Louis County turns out in between 2004 and 2002 levels, that means that McCaskill will lose the Senate seat by 6,000 votes (approximately).

Recount here we come!

However, Boone County still can come in for McCaskill (Univ. of Missouri), but that's offset by Callaway county and some other out-state counties. St Louis City turnout will not be as big as in 2004 and will not be a major impact.

Clay County is still to report, but it broke for Bush in 2004.

*** UPDATE 1 ***
Jasper County (includes Joplin, MO which was mentioned here) hasn't reported. Potential 20k votes (based on 2004 turnout) for the GOP. Estimates are that turnout in Jasper is 4x the 2004 turnout.

*** UPDATE 2 ***
St Louis County votes that have been counted - 200,000.

St Louis County total votes in 2002 and 2004 - 400,000 to 500,000.

Currently the votes are breaking 52% to McCaskill which is not atypical. Hope is that the turnout is closer to 400k than 500k... and that Talent does better than Bush since he's from St Louis County and ran a flawless campaign.

McCaskill has now increased her lead in St Louis County from 6% to 10%. If that continues, this is probably over.

Jasper County can perhaps deliver >20k votes - as they did in 2004 for Bush... this will likely go down to recount, with McCaskill as certified by Sec of State Robin Carnahan (D-MO). Only question is whether Talent will press the issue.

I blame Diebold

*** UPDATE 3 ***
McCaskill is now up 40,000 with Jasper still yet to report. Unfortunately, Jasper is unlikely to deliver that amount. Question is whether GOP portion of St Louis County is still to report or whether that's already in the number.

Painful... and it looks like the call is now solidly to McCaskill. However, if the Dems can bitch about some 120,000 vote conspiracy in Ohio's 2004 election, perhaps I can bitch about some 40,000 win by McCaskill?

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: Brian

Comments (1)
Anonymous said...

here's your only comment...

rove has only been a loser. bush lost by 500,000 votes in 2000...STOLE ohio, and then even barely won (even though all pollsters said kerry won; gee, the pollsters just all happened to be wrong in 2004, but were right before then, and right again this year when all the polling places were CLOSELY watched).

rove was soooooo overrated, and now his legacy is toast. drive yourself nuts.