ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Thursday, November 09, 2006

50-50 Nation

NoLeftTurns did some number crunching of Tuesday's elections and the results seem to mirror my analysis in most states.

For what it’s worth

I crunched a few numbers this morning and get this preliminary result: Democrats won 51.93% of the gross two-party Congressional vote, while Republicans won 48.07%. In raw numbers, that’s 36.1 million to 33.4 million. There are two things that make these numbers (which I took off the CNN website) inaccurate. First, not all the votes have been counted or recounted. I don’t think, however, that small shifts in the final totals will make a huge difference here. Second, CNN doesn’t provide numbers in races where the candidate runs unopposed. There were 4 unopposed Republicans and 30 unopposed Democrats. In other words, the Democratic edge in the national House totals, corrected for unopposed seats, is surely closer to 53-47 or 54-46.

Of course, these were 435 individual contests, all of which had a national dimension but also a local, individualized dimension. There were blue dog Democrat winners, as well as moderate Republican victors. There were good and bad campaigners. There were scandals to which voters paid attention and those to which they didn’t.

I don’t have comparative data for previous elections in front of me (can anyone point me to some?), so I don’t know how much of a shift this is (I’m betting not more than a couple of percentage points from the last few elections).

The nation remains closely divided.

Stated another way, the entire Democratic margin in the House vote can be found in three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts.

The difference was about 2-3% in many districts and states and in some cases exit polls showed self-described Republicans voting for the Dems. It's clear that a message was sent to the President and the GOP. The question is whether the message will be received correctly or whether we're going to immediate revert to the days of Bob Michels and the perpetual GOP minority.

I think one of the biggest question marks regarding this election is how the Dems act in power. Do they take the long view or do they try to satiate their nutroot base?

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler