ARC's 1st Law: As a "progressive" online discussion grows longer, the probability of a nefarious reference to Karl Rove approaches one

Friday, December 30, 2005

2006 Predictions from the Conspiracy

Click Here to see the year end scoring

Well, here are the predictions from some of the members of the Conspiracy. It seems that Penelope is off on another secret mission and is incommunicado - I just hope that whoever she's keeping track of is aware of the danger they're in.

While we're all part of just Another Rovian Conspiracy, keep in mind that these predictions are probably more accurate than anything you'll see over at The Corner or from Miss Cleo... Since Karl let's us in on some of the things he's going to "orchestrate" in the coming year. And yes, this post will be revisited next year and the conspirator with the most correct predictions will win a prize - which will be identified in a week or so. The winner will be announced at the end of 2006.

Here are the categories for our predictions
War On Terror / Foreign Policy
Domestic Politics
Judicial
Media & Blogs
Financial / Economic

Now, on to the predictions! We here at Another Rovian Conspiracy hope that everyone has a Happy New Year! And thanks to my co-conspirators for submitting their predictions and for all of their efforts in 2005. May we drive the Left even battier in 2006!

*** UPDATE ***
The Anchoress has offered some predictions and provided a nice roundup of other bloggers that are joining the fray. Check out All Things Beautiful as well

Your Co-Conspirator,
ARC: St Wendeler



War On Terror / Foreign Policy
1.US Force Level in Iraq?
MontereyJohn - 100,000
Brian - Lower than November 2005 levels (at least 10-20%) (St Wendeler pegs that at about 120 - 135k. Thanks for being specific!
St Wendeler - 80,000, most of the hard fighting is done, thanks to the capture of Zarqawi, the establishment of an elected government, and the Iraqi military.

2.New Hot Spot in the WOT?
MontereyJohn - Syria
Brian - Iran
St Wendeler - Militarily, attention turns to Syria which is supplying the "insurgents". Diplomatically, the new hot spot is Saudi Arabia, which gets a stiff rebuke for its human rights abuses.

3.More Democratic Elections in Middle East other than Iraq?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - No, patience, grasshopper.
St Wendeler - Unlikely that we'll see another Lebanon type movement. However, modest local elections continue in other countries.

4.Status of Kim Jong Il
MontereyJohn - still there, nutty as ever
Brian - Alive and even crazier
St Wendeler - Firm grasp on power in N. Korea and seriously considers "reunifying" with the South. Unfortunately, S. Korean leaders balk at the Kim's request that he become Dear Leader for the reunified country and his demand that all Korean girls under the age of 16 must spend 2 weeks servicing him in his palace. As the saying goes, "the devil's in the details!"

5.Democratic movement in Iran or Holocaust denier still president?
MontereyJohn - he’s still there
Brian - Still president
St Wendeler – Iranian youth stage protests against his return to radicalism and his grip on power is loosens - but he's still in power.

6.Bashar Assad in power?
MontereyJohn - hmmmm, probably so
Brian - Not sure here, Probably
St Wendeler - No. Assassinated by thugs in his regime.

7.Palestinian Authority – Official State of Hamas?
MontereyJohn - afraid so
Brian - No
St Wendeler - Yes

8.WOT in Asia Pacific?
MontereyJohn - Indonesia signs on big time to WOT
Brian - Of course, it's a world war after all
St Wendeler - More attacks against Australian interests strengthen the Aussies' resolve. Indonesia and the Phillippines get increased attention.

9.More or fewer Socialists governments in Latin America?
MontereyJohn - more, looks like Bolivia
Brian - fewer
St Wendeler - More. Chavez continues his aggressive foreign policy of creating "socialist utopias" in Latin America. Unfortunately, Hollywood libs do not emigrate to any of them.

10.Blair as PM? If not, Labor or Conservative as PM?
MontereyJohn - Labor, not Blair
Brian - Still PM
St Wendeler - Still PM, but losing support. Able to hold off attemps by Gordon Brown to hold an election since new Tory leader would kill him with his British version of Compassionate Conservatism.

11.UN blue helmets in Iraq?
MontereyJohn - NO WAY!
Brian - LOL, um yeah right... Not a chance
St Wendeler - Only if the UN finds out that there's a chance to set up a pedophilia ring

12.Major terrorist attack in US?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - Small terrorist attacks ("shopping mall" type attacks) but nothing major. AQ is out of resources & on the run.
St Wendeler - Instances of "individuals" going "postal." Assailants names are not mentioned, lest they spark anti-Islamic sentiments. Democrats seize on the lack of a major attack as proof that we do not need the PATRIOT Act, the NSA, the CIA, and the FBI, the Bush presidency, etc, etc.

13.Major terrorist attack in Europe?
MontereyJohn - Yes
Brian - See 12, Bus Bombings, train bombings, etc. (Shame that they like public transport so much). Look for Italy to be next.
St Wendeler - British ferry is sunk... Two terrorists plots are uncovered and stopped in Germany and the Netherlands.

14.Bush Admin continues NSA surveillance of international communications?
MontereyJohn - Yes
Brian - Of course
St Wendeler - Yes, despite the handwringing and calls for impeachment of the Left and the media.



Domestic Politics
1.Bush Impeached?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - LOL. Umm, no
St Wendeler - the Left and the MSM call for impeachment, but don't have the facts or the votes on their side. They're shocked when this turns out to be a losing electoral strategy in the mid-terms.

2.Libby Convicted?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - No trial in 2006
St Wendeler - No, Fitz loses steam after he finally gets around to reading one of Tom Maguire's posts at JustOneMinute and realizes that Plame wasn't covered under the law and everyone knew that she worked at the CIA.

3.Rove indicted?
MontereyJohn - hmmmmm… No
Brian - Going to go out on a limb here and say no
St Wendeler - Yes... You can indict a ham sandwich, after all. Once Fitz loses all credibility (see 2 above), he indicts Karl after seeing what he believes to be a reasoned and well-researched post on DemocraticUnderground.com

4.Rove convicted?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - Even if indicted, not convicted
St Wendeler -No

5.Delay convicted?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - Yes, but overturned on appeal (not in '06)
St Wendeler - No

6.Dean still DNC Chair?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - Ys, despite the failure of the Dems to take back the house
St Wendeler - No, the washed up governor of Vermont, on the heels of his stunning failure in the mid-terms, announces that he's going to leave the DNC chairpersonship to someone else so he can focus on his '08 presidential bid. After all, the Democratic party loves losers (see Mondale, Carter, etc)

7.Harry Reid still Senate Leader?
MontereyJohn - Yes
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - No... Succeeded by more charismatic Max Baucus.... zzzzzz

8.Nancy Pelosi still House Leader?
MontereyJohn - Yes
Brian - Yes, once again, despite the failure of the Dems to take back the house.
St Wendeler - Yes, but has yet another plastic surgery after the mid-terms, thinking that it will help. Unfortunately, we can now see her prefrontal cortex.

9.Party in control of Senate (and margin of majority)?
MontereyJohn - Republicans, haven’t looked at the situation state-by-state, but guess something like 52-48
Brian - Republicans, +2 (St Wendeler - gain 2 seats? or 2 seat majority?)
St Wendeler - Republicans, 53-47

10.Party in control of House and margin of majority?
MontereyJohn - Republicans, down a few
Brian - Republicans
St Wendeler - Republicans, up a few.

11.Party with most governorships?
MontereyJohn - Republicans
Brian - Don't know
St Wendeler – Republicans

12.Hillary, Romney, Condi, Allen, announces run for President?
MontereyJohn - None of them, not yet
Brian - Not in '06
St Wendeler - Biden announces prematurely, then withdraws in '07 after he remembers that he's from Delaware. Romney doesn't officially announce, but it's a done deal and the travel receipts from New Hampshire pile up.

16.Schwarzenegger re-elected?
MontereyJohn - No
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - No. He decides to swing to the "center" (aka "the Left") and loses his base and fails to attract Democratic voters that think Boxer and Pelosi are too right-wing. California's fiscal problems worsen regardless of who wins because Californian's are unwilling to make any rational decisions.

17.Bush approval rating?
MontereyJohn - 52 pro 48 neg
Brian - 52%
St Wendeler - 56% - Media continues to pound on the NSA story and doesn't understand why president's numbers increase when they keep talking about him defeating terrorists.

18.Guest worker program, fortress America, or status quo?
MontereyJohn - nothing happens, status quo
Brian - Status quo
St Wendeler - Guest worker program (tied to increased border security) is given lip-service, purely for political purposes. Dems nor Republicans want to vote on the issue before mid-terms. Status quo is the result, to the detriment of the US economy and the immigrant workers.



Judicial
1.Alito confirmed?
MontereyJohn - yes
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler – Yes, and Ted Kennedy goes on a bender and starts hanging out with Dodd again and make another "waitress sandwich". Chuck Schumer uses this exact phrase: "Alito is a dagger at the heart of our Constitution."

2.“Nuclear” (or “Constitutional”) option used?
MontereyJohn - no
Brian - No
St Wendeler - No

3.Third SCOTUS nominee for Bush?
MontereyJohn - yes
Brian - Yes, late '06
St Wendeler - Yes. Carpets in the offices of Schumer, Leahy, and Kennedy require "deep" cleaning



Media & Blogs
1.Pajamas Media still in existence?
MontereyJohn - yes
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - Yes, but not gaining the traction it had hoped. Discussions on changing the model take place with second launch party scheduled for late '06. In an effort to "sex up" the site, name changed again, this time to "Lingerie Media". Runner up is Victoria's Open Secrets

2.Another Rovian Conspiracy still in existence?
MontereyJohn - absolutely
Brian - Possibly
St Wendeler - Yes (although I don't like the wobbliness of that Brian guy... have to keep an eye on him). Penelope puts down her 9mm and posts...

3.Biggest blogger to “hang it up” in 2006?
MontereyJohn - not sure, Malkin gets a real gig?
Brian - BitchPhD
St Wendeler - Hmmmm, I would say Wonkette, but she's techincally already stopped blogging - just a few dudes writing at her site from what I can tell. My guess is that OliverWillis, shamed by yet another idiotic post, calls it quits and dedicates himself full-time to uncovering the Right Wing Media cabal - and Twinkies.

4.Biggest blog scandal for 2006 (blog-swarm or scandal involving a blog)?
MontereyJohn - New York Times finally gets busted for something
Brian - no idea
St Wendeler - Some ingenous hacker finds out that 95% of the commenters on DailyKos are actually journalists working at the New York Times, MSNBC, CNN, CBSABCNBC, and NPR. Despite this revelation, Eric Alterman and Oliver Willis still bristle at the term "liberal media"

5.MSNBC’s Keith Olberman still on the air?
MontereyJohn - Oh God, I hope not, going with my heart... NO
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - After the GOP retains majority in House & Senate, Olberman has seizure on-air after he reads Countdown item #1 on same subject. MSNBC replaces Olberman with a "more level-headed" Michael Moore

6.FNC’s O’Reilly still on the air (radio or TV)?
MontereyJohn - Yes, he has huge numbers
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - Yes, although has a slip in the radio ratings

7.Air America still on the air?
MontereyJohn - Still Sucks, out of business, or profitable? – gone
Brian - Off the Air, still sucks, and out of business. Final days has staff stealing everything that isn't nailed down for sale on eBay.
St Wendeler - Yes, but Al Franken & Randi Rhodes have to say "Soros is a GOD" at the top and bottom of each hour.



Financial / Economic
1.Unemployment higher or lower (can it go any lower)?
MontereyJohn - inches lower
Brian - +/- 2% of current (St Wendeler comments: 4% swing.... way to take a stand!)
St Wendeler - 4% and Bernanke will signal inflationary pressures on the economy. Despite this, the Dems will still complain about the lack of economic opportunity for people who want to work and the illegal immigrants will be scalded for taking jobs from Americans by both the Left and the Right.

2.Annual GDP Growth?
MontereyJohn - 3%
Brian - 3%
St Wendeler - 4%, economy goes on a tear as Bernanke takes the wheel. Consumer Confidence finally catches up with economic reality.

3.Stock Market up or down for the year?
MontereyJohn - up a little, it’s had a pretty good run to almost 11,000, it will make it to that mark sometime during the year
Brian - Up
St Wendeler - DJIA over 11,000 and looking at 12,000; Nasdaq at 3,000

4.Google’s stock price (split adjusted)?
MontereyJohn - no idea… I smell a bubble
Brian - 450
St Wendeler - Google at 500. I commit suicide for not listening to my gut instincts on this one... If a company name is a verb (and it turns a profit), "buy! buy! buy!"

5.Tax cuts permanent?
MontereyJohn - unfortunately not all of them
Brian - Yes
St Wendeler - Partially; the GOP gives up on driving a stake in the death tax.

6.Social Security “reformed”?
MontereyJohn - no way
Brian - No, they'll call it reformed, but it won't be significant reform whatever they pass. Not in an election year.
St Wendeler - Kick the can down the road. In 10 years, when Bush is a former President, the Dems will complain about the lack of resolve by Bush to solve the problem.

7.Tax system “reformed”?
MontereyJohn - hmmmmm… no
Brian - No, ditto. They'll call it reformed, but it will be more nibbling around the edges
St Wendeler - Yes, if by reform you mean "more complicated and more likely to result in increased government interest in taxpayers' everyday life"

Comments (3)
49erDweet said...

Fearless prognostication, oh noble Rovians. If only . . . . .

ptg said...

I can hardly wait.

St Wendeler said...

I forgot to ask the conspirators about these categories, but here are some additional predictions:

Sports
Colts win the SuperBowl

Illinois wins the national
championship this time

Cardinals have trouble early in the season, make a threat to get into the playoffs, but fail to do so.

Cubs lose in the World Series.

Greatest Show on Turf is no more.

Technology & Business
Longhorn (or whatever MSFT is calling it these days) isn't released in '06.

Linux continues to eat market share in server space.

Firefox and Opera (yes, Opera) increase their marketshare of the web-browser space.

Google is still a verb, but it can be used in other contexts than search, if you know what I mean.

Microsoft is still puzzled why they're not doing well and are still talking about changing their business model to take advantage of the web-thingy.

Outsourcing isn't an issue that anyone cares about anymore - save for the few deranged (and racist?) Lefties who hate their calls being routed to India.

India overtakes China in terms of foreign investment as foreign businesses recognize that India is a more stable economic environment to operate within.

The letter "i" as a prefix (iPod, iTunes, etc) loses it's appeal and marketing folks spend many sleepless hours trying to think up product names again.